Breakthroughs will emerge from 'systems' of AI—chaining together multiple specialized models to perform complex tasks. GPT-4 is rumored to be a 'mixture of experts,' and companies like Wonder Dynamics combine different models for tasks like character rigging and lighting to achieve superior results.
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The AI market is becoming "polytheistic," with numerous specialized models excelling at niche tasks, rather than "monotheistic," where a single super-model dominates. This fragmentation creates opportunities for differentiated startups to thrive by building effective models for specific use cases, as no single model has mastered everything.
The AI industry is hitting data limits for training massive, general-purpose models. The next wave of progress will likely come from creating highly specialized models for specific domains, similar to DeepMind's AlphaFold, which can achieve superhuman performance on narrow tasks.
The future of AI is not a single all-knowing model, but a "router" model that triages requests to a suite of specialized expert AIs (e.g., doctor, programmer). The primary technical and business challenge will shift to building the most efficient and accurate routing system, which will determine market leadership.
The path to robust AI applications isn't a single, all-powerful model. It's a system of specialized "sub-agents," each handling a narrow task like context retrieval or debugging. This architecture allows for using smaller, faster, fine-tuned models for each task, improving overall system performance and efficiency.
The AI arms race will shift from building ever-larger general models to creating smaller, highly specialized models for domains like medicine and law. General AIs will evolve to act as "general contractors," routing user queries to the appropriate specialist model for deeper expertise.
Initially, even OpenAI believed a single, ultimate 'model to rule them all' would emerge. This thinking has completely changed to favor a proliferation of specialized models, creating a healthier, less winner-take-all ecosystem where different models serve different needs.
The next evolution for autonomous agents is the ability to form "agentic teams." This involves creating specialized agents for different tasks (e.g., research, content creation) that can hand off work to one another, moving beyond a single user-to-agent relationship towards a system of collaborating AIs.
The belief that a single, god-level foundation model would dominate has proven false. Horowitz points to successful AI applications like Cursor, which uses 13 different models. This shows that value lies in the complex orchestration and design at the application layer, not just in having the largest single model.
Building one centralized AI model is a legacy approach that creates a massive single point of failure. The future requires a multi-layered, agentic system where specialized models are continuously orchestrated, providing checks and balances for a more resilient, antifragile ecosystem.
A more likely AI future involves an ecosystem of specialized agents, each mastering a specific domain (e.g., physical vs. digital worlds), rather than a single, monolithic AGI that understands everything. These agents will require protocols to interact.
