Instead of a single "AGI" event, AI progress is better understood in three stages. We're in the "powerful tools" era. The next is "powerful agents" that act autonomously. The final stage, "autonomous organizations" that outcompete human-led ones, is much further off due to capability "spikiness."

Instead of building a single, monolithic AGI, the "Comprehensive AI Services" model suggests safety comes from creating a buffered ecosystem of specialized AIs. These agents can be superhuman within their domain (e.g., protein folding) but are fundamentally limited, preventing runaway, uncontrollable intelligence.

The future of AI requires two distinct interaction models. One is the conversational "agent," akin to collaborating with a person. The other is the formally programmed "system." These are different paradigms for different needs, like a chair versus a table, not a single evolutionary path.

Moving beyond isolated AI agents requires a framework mirroring human collaboration. This involves agents establishing common goals (shared intent), building a collective knowledge base (shared knowledge), and creating novel solutions together (shared innovation).

Agentic AI will evolve into a 'multi-agent ecosystem.' This means AI agents from different companies—like an airline and a hotel—will interact directly with each other to autonomously solve a customer's complex problem, freeing humans from multi-party coordination tasks.

The next frontier in AI is not just developing individual agents, but orchestrating teams of them. Users will move from dialoguing with a single chatbot to managing multiple agents working in parallel on complex, long-running workflows. This becomes a new core skill for knowledge workers.

Current AI development focuses on "vertical scaling" (bigger models), akin to early humans getting smarter individually. The real breakthrough, like humanity's invention of language, will come from "horizontal scaling"—enabling AI agents to share knowledge and collaborate.

The pursuit of AGI is misguided. The real value of AI lies in creating reliable, interpretable, and scalable software systems that solve specific problems, much like traditional engineering. The goal should be "Artificial Programmable Intelligence" (API), not AGI.

The idea that one company will achieve AGI and dominate is challenged by current trends. The proliferation of powerful, specialized open-source models from global players suggests a future where AI technology is diverse and dispersed, not hoarded by a single entity.