Current real estate deliveries were financed in the 2020-22 low-rate era, causing a temporary supply glut in high-demand sectors like Sunbelt apartments. Since new construction halted in 2023, today's depressed prices offer a unique entry point before supply normalizes and rents can accelerate.

The REIT market transformed from four highly correlated sectors (office, industrial, retail, residential) to a diverse universe including data centers and towers. Secular risks like e-commerce mean subsectors no longer move in unison, demanding specialized analysis rather than general real estate knowledge.

Beyond productivity, the physical office plays a vital societal role. Gensler's survey data shows it's a primary venue where people form relationships with those outside their immediate demographic (race, age, religion). This makes the workplace a critical tool for fostering social cohesion in an increasingly polarized world.

Counterintuitively, the best multifamily markets aren't high-population-growth cities like Austin. These attract too much new supply, capping rent growth. The optimal strategy is to find markets with barriers to entry and minimal new construction, as this creates a durable runway for rental increases.

The difference in home price trends between US regions is not about weather or jobs, but housing supply. States in the South and West that permit widespread new construction are seeing prices fall, while "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) states in the Northeast and Midwest face shortages and rising prices.

To adapt to hybrid work and reduce overhead, Hard Numbers shares its office with another agency. One firm uses the space on Tuesdays and Thursdays, while the other takes Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. This "timeshare" model is a practical real estate hack for companies no longer needing a five-day-a-week presence.

While AI firms are leasing office space now, the widespread adoption of AI will likely reduce the need for office workers across many industries. This long-term trend of job displacement is expected to create far more vacancy than the current leasing from AI companies fills.

The dominance of passive funds and hyper-short-term pod shops has doubled the average stock price movement in the REIT space. This increased volatility creates opportunities for long-term investors to capitalize on exaggerated market reactions to minor news.

Gensler's strategy for post-pandemic work is to transform the office into a compelling destination people choose to visit. This involves reducing individual desks in favor of diverse, flexible collaboration spaces that offer experiences and social connections unavailable at home, making the commute worthwhile.