Russia's interests are served by an isolated Iran that doesn't compete in European gas markets or its Central Asian sphere of influence. In contrast, China would gain from a stable, economically powerful Iran that can maximize its energy output and open its large market to global commerce.

The conflict provides a lifeline to Putin through higher energy prices and a distracted U.S. military. For China, every moment the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East is a moment it isn't focused on the Indo-Pacific, furthering their long-term strategic goals.

The conflict benefits China by allowing it to secure its own energy supply through a direct deal with Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, China can help Iran rebuild its military and infrastructure, creating a more deeply integrated 'axis' that realigns regional power against U.S. interests.

The current Iran crisis could mirror the 1957 Suez Crisis, which marked the transfer of global power from the British Empire to the U.S. If China successfully leverages the situation to its diplomatic and economic advantage, it could signal a similar shift in global power away from the United States.

While Venezuela was a key oil supplier and geopolitical asset, it was also seen as a failed investment ("money gone to waste"). Iran, by contrast, is a core strategic partner in China's "axis of ill will" against U.S. influence. A regime collapse in Iran would be a far more significant blow to China's global strategy.

The move against Iran is not just a regional conflict but part of a grand strategy to disrupt the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis. By attempting to cut off China's access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela, the goal is to weaken China’s economic rise, even at the risk of global instability.

The confrontation with Iran should be viewed as the main flashpoint for the reorganization of the global order. It embodies 'Thucydides' Trap,' where the rising power of China challenges the established dominance of the US, with the conflict serving as the messy, real-world arena for this power struggle.

China's extreme reliance on oil from Iran and Venezuela (20% of domestic consumption) makes it the party most hurt by the conflict. This gives the US leverage, pressuring Xi Jinping to negotiate a resolution to secure China's energy supply and stabilize its economy.

While facing economic headwinds from the oil crisis, China is positioning the US-Iran conflict as a geopolitical victory. It portrays the US as a chaotic, destabilizing force, contrasting itself as a stable superpower and capitalizing on the global fallout from what it terms 'poor strategic coordination' by Washington.