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The conflict provides a lifeline to Putin through higher energy prices and a distracted U.S. military. For China, every moment the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East is a moment it isn't focused on the Indo-Pacific, furthering their long-term strategic goals.
The push for conflict with Iran wasn't just about nuclear threats but a calculated move. By controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the US could cut off China's primary oil source, forcing them into economic concessions and shoring up the US dollar.
Russia's interests are served by an isolated Iran that doesn't compete in European gas markets or its Central Asian sphere of influence. In contrast, China would gain from a stable, economically powerful Iran that can maximize its energy output and open its large market to global commerce.
The current Iran crisis could mirror the 1957 Suez Crisis, which marked the transfer of global power from the British Empire to the U.S. If China successfully leverages the situation to its diplomatic and economic advantage, it could signal a similar shift in global power away from the United States.
From China's perspective, the US being bogged down in the Iran conflict is an "unforced error" that reduces American focus and diplomatic bandwidth. This distraction is seen as an opportunity for China to gain an upper hand in ongoing trade and technology disputes.
Russia, as a commodity superpower, profits from the instability that drives up oil and gas prices. Conversely, China's economic model depends on integrated global markets and trade. This fundamental difference in core interests presents a strategic opportunity for the West to drive a wedge between the two powers.
The move against Iran is not just a regional conflict but part of a grand strategy to disrupt the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis. By attempting to cut off China's access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela, the goal is to weaken China’s economic rise, even at the risk of global instability.
A protracted U.S. conflict in the Middle East is a strategic gift to China. It diverts American military resources, political attention, and economic strength, allowing China to expand its influence, particularly in Asia, without direct confrontation.
China's extreme reliance on oil from Iran and Venezuela (20% of domestic consumption) makes it the party most hurt by the conflict. This gives the US leverage, pressuring Xi Jinping to negotiate a resolution to secure China's energy supply and stabilize its economy.
While facing economic headwinds from the oil crisis, China is positioning the US-Iran conflict as a geopolitical victory. It portrays the US as a chaotic, destabilizing force, contrasting itself as a stable superpower and capitalizing on the global fallout from what it terms 'poor strategic coordination' by Washington.
The Iran conflict serves the strategic interests of China and Russia by distracting US attention and draining its military resources. It consumes critical assets (like Patriot missiles needed for Ukraine) and diverts political focus from containing America's primary geopolitical rivals in Europe and Asia.