Companies like Circle (stablecoins) and Securitize (tokenization) become the only public market vehicle for a specific macro trend. This unique position causes their stock to trade based on the narrative and investor demand for exposure, decoupling their valuation from traditional financial metrics.
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Drawing parallels to closed-end funds, Berkshire Hathaway, and well-managed banks, analyst Andy Edstrom argues against high MNAV (multiple of net asset value) multiples for Bitcoin treasury companies. Historical precedent suggests these firms should trade between a slight discount (0.8x) and a modest premium (2-2.5x MNAV), not the extreme valuations seen previously.
A proposed mental model frames MicroStrategy's issuance of preferred stock as analogous to Tether issuing stablecoins. Instead of using treasuries, MSTR uses heavily over-collateralized Bitcoin (e.g., 5-to-1 ratio) to create a yield-bearing, dollar-denominated instrument, effectively securitizing its Bitcoin holdings to generate returns for equity holders.
Stablecoin market growth isn't driven by a single factor. Analysis reveals it has been fastest during periods when both Bitcoin prices and the broad US dollar index are appreciating simultaneously. This dual correlation points to a specific macro environment that is most conducive to stablecoin adoption.
The cost to convert local currencies into dollar-backed stablecoins often includes a premium over the official FX rate. This "stablecoin access premium" is highly correlated with FX volatility, suggesting the newer stablecoin market is already taking pricing cues from the larger, more mature FX market.
High-profile sports franchises defy standard financial analysis. Their valuation is driven more by their scarcity and desirability as a "trophy asset," similar to a masterpiece painting. This makes them a store of value where the underlying business fundamentals are only part of the equation.
Companies like Tesla and Oracle achieve massive valuations not through profits, but by capturing the dominant market story, such as becoming an "AI company." Investors should analyze a company's ability to create and own the next compelling narrative.
While stablecoins gain attention, tokenized deposits offer similar benefits—like on-chain transactions—but operate within the existing, trusted regulatory banking framework. As they are simply bank liabilities on a blockchain, they may become a more palatable alternative for corporates seeking efficiency without regulatory uncertainty.
The key benefit of tokenizing private credit or real estate is not just efficiency, but fractionalizing large, illiquid assets into smaller, tradable units. This unlocks global capital from family offices and other investors who cannot afford the traditional high minimum investment tickets.
Philosopher Jean Baudrillard's theory of "simulacra"—where representations become independent of reality—perfectly models the meme stock phenomenon. The stock's price becomes a "third-order simulacrum," taking on a life of its own driven by narrative, detached from the company's actual performance.
The high profits enjoyed by stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle are temporary. Major financial institutions (Visa, JPMorgan) will eventually launch their own stablecoins, not as primary profit centers, but as low-cost tools to acquire and retain customers. This will drive margins down for the entire industry.
