Each time the U.S. uses financial sanctions, it demonstrates the risks of relying on the dollar system. This incentivizes adversaries like Russia and China to accelerate the development of parallel financial infrastructure, weakening the dollar's long-term network effect and dominance.
Profitable companies act as a hedge against currency debasement. They issue long-term debt at low fixed rates, effectively shorting the currency. They then invest the proceeds into productive assets or their own stock, which tend to outperform inflation, benefiting shareholders.
The primary risk for the U.S. is not the inevitable decline of the dollar's dominance, which could rebalance the economy. The danger lies in trying to fight this trend, leading to a disorderly and painful collapse rather than a graceful, managed transition from a position of strength.
A nation’s currency becomes dominant long after its economic and military power is established. Similarly, it retains that status due to network effects long after other metrics of power have begun to decline. The dollar's persistence is an example of this lagging effect.
When countries run large, structural government deficits, their policy options become limited. Historically, this state of 'fiscal dominance' leads to the implementation of capital controls and other financial frictions to prevent capital flight and manage the currency, increasing risks for investors.
Careers have two distinct stages. The 'Yes Phase' is for expansion, where you have more time than resources and should seek opportunities. The 'No Phase' is for focus, where time is the constraint, and success depends on strategically saying 'no' to preserve energy for high-impact work.
Global demand for dollars as the reserve currency forces the U.S. to run persistent trade deficits to supply them. This strengthens the dollar and boosts import power but hollows out the domestic industrial base. A future decline in dollar demand would create a painful economic transition.
The US dollar reached its peak global dominance in the early 2000s. The world is now gradually shifting to a system where multiple currencies (like the euro and yuan) and neutral assets (like gold) share the role of reserve currency, marking a return to a more historically normal state.
In periods of 'fiscal dominance,' where government debt and deficits are high, a central bank's independence inevitably erodes. Its primary function shifts from controlling inflation to ensuring the government can finance its spending, often through financial repression like yield curve control.