Rather than surgical strikes, which have a poor historical track record, the most effective foreign support for Iranian protesters is restoring their internet connectivity. The regime kills in the dark; offensive cyber operations that tear down its 'digital iron wall' directly empower citizens and expose atrocities.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.
The removal of Maduro was a technological showcase, employing cyber tools to knock out power and air defenses, communications jamming, and suicide drones. This demonstrates a significant evolution in U.S. military capabilities beyond conventional special operations.
Rather than taking a "holier than thou" stance and refusing to engage with governments that have committed atrocities, it is more effective to build bridges. Cooperation invites them into the 21st century and aligns them with your values, whereas isolationism is counterproductive.
Protests in Iran, if they disrupt the regime, could halt cheap oil flows to China. This would force China to buy from more expensive, US-friendly markets, strengthening the US dollar's global dominance and isolating anti-Western powers without direct US intervention.
A destabilized Iranian regime is more dangerous, not less. Israeli intelligence fears Tehran might launch a strike on a foreign enemy like Israel to distract its populace, create a "rally 'round the flag" effect, and restore military pride after recent setbacks.
Contrary to his hawkish reputation, Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately lowering Israel's profile regarding Iran's internal protests. This strategic silence aims to prevent the embattled Iranian regime from feeling cornered and launching a preemptive attack out of paranoia.
A clean, external removal of Iran's leadership, similar to what occurred in Venezuela, is unlikely. Iran's population is nearly four times larger, it is geographically distant, and the American political psyche associates the Middle East with costly military entanglements, creating a much higher barrier to intervention.
The current Iranian protests are uniquely potent because the regime is at its weakest geopolitically. The loss of regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with key ally Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, has left the Iranian government more isolated and vulnerable than during any previous wave of unrest.
Despite widespread internal protests and instability, history shows that an external attack is one of the few things that can unify the Iranian population. A potential Israeli strike, meant to weaken the regime, could backfire by creating a 'rally 'round the flag' effect that shores up support for the Ayatollah.
Unlike nascent revolutionary states that rally against foreign attacks, late-stage dictatorships are weakened by military defeats. Iran's recent humiliations by Israel and the US have exposed incompetence and eroded the public's perception of strength, fueling protests and accelerating the regime's demise.