The US is actively dismantling the global systems it created (free trade, collective security), making it the primary driver of global uncertainty, not external challengers like China.

The popular narrative of deglobalization is incorrect. Geopolitical and economic shocks are not causing a retreat from global trade but rather a massive "rewiring." Countries and companies are adapting by diversifying sources and markets, creating a more resilient, albeit more complex, global economic system.

Great power competition, regional wars, and fading alliances like NATO are ending the era of globalized supply chains. The future belongs to resilient networks built exclusively among trusted, allied nations, requiring a fundamental business realignment.

The Western belief that free trade would cause authoritarian states like China to liberalize has proven false. Instead, this policy created a powerful manufacturing competitor whose interests diverge from the West's. The current era of deglobalization is an unwinding of this flawed foundational premise of the post-war order.

The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is not an isolated shock but a catalyst speeding up the shift towards fragmented supply chains, regional power blocs, and the securitization of essential goods like food and energy.

The 19th-century liberal view held that economic interdependence fosters peace. However, as great power rivalry intensifies, this view inverts. Nations begin to see reliance on a competitor for critical goods not as a bond of peace, but as a dangerous vulnerability, leading to a push for self-sufficiency.

The era of economic-led globalization is over. In the new world order, geopolitical interests are the primary driver of international relations. Economic instruments like tariffs and export restrictions are now used as levers to assert national interests, a fundamental shift from the US-centric view where the economy traditionally took the lead.

When trade policies force allies like Canada to find new partners, it's not a temporary shift. They build new infrastructure and relationships that won't be abandoned even if the political climate changes. The trust is broken, making the economic damage long-lasting and difficult to repair.

The post-Cold War era of stability is over. The world is returning to an 'Old Normal' where great power conflict plays out in the economic arena. This new state is defined by fiscal dominance, weaponized supply chains, and structurally higher inflation, risk premia, and volatility.