Rabois's investment formula requires a founder to be the absolute best he's ever met in at least one specific dimension—be it intelligence, tenacity, or strategy. He avoids investing in founders who are merely B+ across the board, betting instead on extreme, world-class exceptionalism.
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Elite talent manifests in two primary ways. An individual is either in the top 0.01% on a single dimension (e.g., tenacity, sales), or they possess a rare Venn diagram of skills that don't typically coexist (e.g., a first-rate technologist who is also a first-rate business strategist).
Over-diligencing for well-rounded perfection is a mistake. The best companies rarely excel in every area initially. Instead, investors should identify the one "spike"—the single dimension where the company is 5-10x better than anyone else—as this is the true indicator of outlier potential, rather than looking for a company that is A+ across the board.
a16z's investment philosophy is to assess founders on how world-class they are at their core strengths. Horowitz warns it's a mistake to pass on a uniquely talented founder due to fixable weaknesses (e.g., no go-to-market plan) and an equal mistake to back a less talented founder just because they lack obvious flaws.
Sequoia quantifies its search for 'outlier founders' in statistical terms. An exceptional founder is three standard deviations above the mean in a key trait, but a true outlier is four. This statistical lens explains their high bar, reviewing around 1,000 companies for every single investment.
Ben Horowitz states a common VC mistake is over-indexing on a startup's weaknesses. The better investment is a team that is unequivocally the best at a single, critical thing. Being "pretty good" at everything is a red flag, as greatness in one area is what drives extraordinary outcomes.
To gauge a founder's drive and potential for greatness, ask if they have ever been in the top 1% of any field, even an esoteric one. This unconventional question serves as a powerful proxy for ambition and the willingness to push through challenges, regardless of their professional background.
While assessed during diligence, the true caliber of a founder—their passion, authenticity, and ability to "run through walls"—becomes starkly clear after the deal closes. This distinction is not subtle; the impact of a truly exceptional founder versus an average one is immediately evident in the business's trajectory.
A truly exceptional founder is a talent magnet who will relentlessly iterate until they find a winning model. Rejecting a partnership based on a weak initial idea is a mistake; the founder's talent is the real asset. They will likely pivot to a much bigger opportunity.
Horowitz instructs his team to focus on how exceptionally good a founder is at their core competency. He warns against two common errors: passing on a world-class individual due to fixable weaknesses, and investing in a founder with no glaring flaws but no world-class strengths.
Venture capital should focus on what a founder does exceptionally well, rather than penalizing them for past failures or weaknesses. Ben Horowitz uses the Adam Neumann example to illustrate their principle: judge people by their spectacular talents (like building the WeWork brand) and help them manage their flaws, which is a more effective strategy than seeking perfectly flawless individuals.
