In a typical LBO, the acquired company, not the PE firm, is responsible for the massive debt used to buy it. A proposed legislative fix would force PE firms to have "skin in the game" by sharing joint liability for these loans.

While bad credit might be the spark, the fuel for nearly every major financial crisis is a fundamental mismatch between assets and liabilities. This occurs when an entity holds illiquid investments but owes money to creditors who can demand it back on short notice, forcing fire sales.

In private markets, there's a perverse incentive for both private equity owners and private credit lenders to avoid marking down asset values. This "mark to make-believe" system keeps valuations artificially high, hiding underlying financial stress and delaying the recognition of losses.

Saks' downfall wasn't due to poor retail sales alone, but a failed, debt-fueled acquisition of rival Neiman Marcus, driven by the desire to own prime real estate. This reveals their core business model had shifted from selling clothes to controlling valuable property, and they failed on a real estate play.

The "canary in the coal mine" for private credit isn't SaaS debt but any over-leveraged company. A firm burdened by debt repayments lacks the capital to invest in AI and automation, making it vulnerable to disruption by less-leveraged, more innovative competitors in any industry, not just software.

Unlike public companies, highly leveraged SaaS firms bought by PE face a brutal reckoning. With no growth to pay down debt, they must slash headcount and R&D. This leads to a long, nasty grind of declining quality and market relevance, even if customer inertia keeps them alive for years.

Contrary to the narrative that PE firms create leaner, more efficient companies, the data reveals a starkly different reality. The debt-loading and cost-cutting tactics inherent in the PE model dramatically increase a portfolio company's risk of failure.

Unlike capitalism which fosters growth through investment and innovation, "crapitalism" describes how private equity owners can hollow out a company by focusing solely on cost-cutting and value extraction. This neglects necessary investments in e-commerce and customer service, leading to the brand's decline and eventual bankruptcy.

Recent financial distress in large, private equity-owned software companies is being misattributed to the threat of AI. The actual cause is over-leveraging when interest rates were low, followed by an inability to service that debt as rates rose and growth slowed. It's a credit problem, not a technology disruption problem.