The US military action, especially the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, is harming Gulf nations economically. Instead of strengthening an anti-Iran coalition, this 'half-baked' approach is eroding goodwill and pushing these crucial partners away, undermining the primary strategic benefit of the operation.

Beyond financial diversification, Gulf States may be using their significant investments in American venture capital as a bargaining chip. By threatening to review or pull back these commitments, they can apply economic pressure on the US administration to seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts like the Iran war.

The conflict reveals a dual nature of US support. While advanced American military equipment like missile defense systems proved highly effective in mitigating attacks, the political commitment to intervene and protect Gulf interests has repeatedly disappointed regional leaders, creating a crisis of confidence.

While the war highlights the danger of the US partnership, Gulf states are counterintuitively forced to deepen their reliance on American military support for immediate defense. This creates a strategic paradox: they need the US for short-term survival but see the alliance as a long-term liability.

The primary US motivation for the conflict with Iran is not nuclear weapons or ideology, but the need to secure $2 trillion in pledged investments from Gulf states into America's critical AI infrastructure and economy.

Key US allies have incentives for America to enter a conflict with Iran but not win decisively. The ideal outcome for them is a weakened Iran and a distracted, overextended America that is more dependent on their cooperation. This subverts the simple narrative of a unified coalition, revealing a complex web of self-interest.

Feeling exposed by a US they perceive as prioritizing Israel's defense, Gulf states are pursuing a "portfolio approach" to security. This involves creating smaller, multi-country defense pacts with nations like Pakistan, Turkey, and South Korea to build resilience beyond their traditional alliance with Washington.

The main driver for US action against Iran is to stabilize the Gulf region to secure over $2 trillion in investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, making the threat from Iran an existential economic one.

Iran's attempt to sow regional instability by attacking nine Arab countries backfired. Instead of creating chaos, these militarily insignificant 'pinprick' attacks eliminated neutrality and pushed Gulf states to fully support the US-Israeli mission against Iran, viewing it as a necessary response.