Many investors focus on the current size of a company's competitive advantage. A better indicator of future success is the direction of that moat—is it growing or shrinking? Focusing on the trajectory helps avoid value traps like Nokia in 2007, which had a wide but deteriorating moat.

Permira differentiates in the crowded tech private equity space by targeting category-leading software companies. Their strategy focuses on doubling down on product investment to accelerate growth, rather than milking the business for short-term margin expansion.

Sacerdote inverts his long-only framework to identify shorting opportunities. This includes technologies that are too early for adoption (e.g., early VR), companies lacking a competitive advantage within a real trend (e.g., non-Apple smartphone makers), or mature businesses being disrupted by a new S-curve.

Investors must recognize that S-curve forecasts are not static. Whale Rock initially modeled cloud computing as a $300B deflationary market (versus $600B in traditional IT spend) but later realized it was a full $600B market as it spurred new demand, significantly extending the investment runway.

When a new technology stack like AI emerges, the infrastructure layer (chips, networking) inflects first and has the most identifiable winners. Sacerdote argues the application and model layers are riskier and less predictable, similar to the early, chaotic days of internet search engines before Google's dominance.

Unlike SaaS startups focused on finding product-market fit (market risk), deep tech ventures tackle immense technical challenges. If they succeed, they enter massive, pre-existing trillion-dollar markets like energy or shipping where demand is virtually guaranteed, eliminating market risk entirely.

Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.

Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.

Instead of predicting short-term outcomes, focus on macro trends that seem inevitable over a decade (e.g., more e-commerce, more 3D interaction). This framework, used by Tim Ferriss to invest in Shopify and by Roblox for mobile, helps identify high-potential areas and build with conviction.