Many investors focus on the current size of a company's competitive advantage. A better indicator of future success is the direction of that moat—is it growing or shrinking? Focusing on the trajectory helps avoid value traps like Nokia in 2007, which had a wide but deteriorating moat.
The founders initially feared their data collection hardware would be easily copied. However, they discovered the true challenge and defensible moat lay in scaling the full-stack system—integrating hardware iterations, data pipelines, and training loops. The unexpected difficulty of this process created a powerful competitive advantage.
Some companies execute a 3-5 year plan and then revert to average returns. Others 'win by winning'—their success creates new opportunities and network effects, turning them into decade-long compounders that investors often sell too early.
There appears to be a predictable 5-10 year lag between a startup's innovation gaining traction (e.g., Calendly) and a tech giant commoditizing it as a feature (e.g., Google Calendar's scheduling). This "commoditization window" is the crucial timeframe for a startup to build a brand, network effects, and a durable moat.
The long-held belief that a complex codebase provides a durable competitive advantage is becoming obsolete due to AI. As software becomes easier to replicate, defensibility shifts away from the technology itself and back toward classic business moats like network effects, brand reputation, and deep industry integration.
As AI and no-code tools make software easier to build, technological advantage is no longer a defensible moat. The most successful companies now win through unique distribution advantages, such as founder-led content or deep community building. Go-to-market strategy has surpassed product as the key differentiator.
A sustainable competitive advantage is often rooted in a company's culture. When core values are directly aligned with what gives a company its market edge (e.g., Costco's employee focus driving superior retail service), the moat becomes incredibly difficult for competitors to replicate.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
Contrary to belief, downside protection in a growth portfolio is not about diversification. It's about owning companies whose competitive advantages are actively growing. During downturns, these companies can invest and take market share from financially constrained rivals, making them surprisingly resilient and defensive.
While many investors screen for companies with high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), a more powerful indicator is the trajectory of ROIC. A company improving from a 4% to 8% ROIC is often a better investment than one stagnant at 12%, as there is a direct correlation between rising ROIC and stock performance.