The oil market's lack of reaction to the events in Venezuela demonstrates a key principle: short-to-medium term prices are driven by current production and delivery capacity, not the theoretical size of underground reserves that may take years and billions to develop.

J.P. Morgan's research projects Venezuela could reach 1.4 million barrels per day in two years, but feedback from industry players suggests these numbers are "too low." This indicates that the U.S. administration and energy executives anticipate a much faster and larger production ramp-up than currently modeled.

Contrary to assumptions, oil majors are cautious about re-entering Venezuela. They worry about a lack of legal certainty and the risk that any deals could be undone and heavily scrutinized by a future U.S. administration, making the investment too risky.

The instability in Venezuela highlights the increasing geopolitical friction between the U.S. and China over commodities. This reinforces the strategy for central banks in emerging markets to buy gold as a way to diversify reserves, hedge against sanctions risk, and move away from the U.S. dollar.

Despite holding the world's largest oil reserves (17%), Venezuela's contribution to global production is minimal (<1%). This critical gap between reserves and output explains why major geopolitical events in the country have little immediate impact on global oil supply or prices.

The Maduro regime is not just a corrupt petrostate; it is a diversified criminal enterprise. It has expanded into drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and human trafficking, turning Venezuela into a safe haven for global criminal networks, terrorist groups, and adversaries like Russia and Iran.

Market fears of Venezuelan oil flooding the market are misplaced. Experts estimate it will take at least three years and significant investment to bring just one million barrels per day of production back online. The immediate supply Venezuela can offer is minimal, making the news irrelevant to the 2026 price outlook.

The hosts argue that even with vast oil reserves and government encouragement, the political instability, power vacuum, and lack of rule of law in Venezuela make it a poor investment for oil companies. The cost and uncertainty of securing profits are too high.

While media outlets create hype cycles around certain critical materials like rare earths, other equally vital commodities such as tungsten and tin face similar geopolitical supply risks but receive far less attention. These 'un-hyped' bottlenecks present significant investment opportunities for diligent researchers.