Despite managing a financials fund, Derek Pilecki is bearish on the average bank. He argues that intensifying competition from online banks and giants like JP Morgan will continuously compress margins and lower returns over the long run, making passive bank investing a poor strategy.
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Despite clear bullish signals like deregulation and a capital markets recovery, investors have hesitated to commit to financials, creating an under-owned sector. This sets the stage for a potential 'catch-up' trade, especially for regional banks positioned to regain market share.
Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.
Investing in financial services forces a 360-degree analysis of asset quality, originators, and servicers. This complexity makes it a superior training ground for a generalist investing career compared to analyzing simpler businesses where the focus is narrower.
Banks possess more intimate customer data than tech giants like Google and Facebook, yet their product offerings are generic and irrelevant. This failure to leverage their data for a personalized experience is a core reason banking feels broken and lags far behind the customer-centricity of Big Tech.
Institutions must manage four primary risks: failing to meet liabilities (shortfall), path-of-return volatility (drawdown), access to capital (liquidity), and the reputational risk of underperforming peers, which Matt Bank calls “embarrassment risk.” This last one is often the most delicate and hard to quantify.
Professional fund managers are often constrained by the need to hug their benchmark index to avoid short-term underperformance and retain clients. Individuals, free from this 'career risk,' can make truly long-term, contrarian bets, which is a significant structural advantage for outperformance.
Contrary to classic theory, markets may be growing less efficient. This is driven not only by passive indexing but also by a structural shift in active management towards short-term, quantitative strategies that prioritize immediate price movements over long-term fundamental value.
Contrary to the belief that indexing creates market inefficiencies, Michael Mauboussin argues the opposite. Indexing removes the weakest, 'closet indexing' players from the active pool, increasing the average skill level of the remaining competition and making it harder to find an edge.
After nearly two decades of poor performance, European banks have become a compelling deep value opportunity. Pilecki highlights French banks trading at just 35-60% of tangible book value, viewing new CEO appointments as a key catalyst for a potential re-rating in the long-hated sector.
The high profits enjoyed by stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle are temporary. Major financial institutions (Visa, JPMorgan) will eventually launch their own stablecoins, not as primary profit centers, but as low-cost tools to acquire and retain customers. This will drive margins down for the entire industry.
