A contrarian view suggests a new political administration might deliberately implement growth-negative policies at the start of a term. This strategy, likened to a new CEO "kitchen sinking" results, clears the deck and establishes a low baseline, making subsequent growth appear more robust.

The administration's explicit focus on re-shoring manufacturing and preparing for potential geopolitical conflict provides a clear investment playbook. Capital should flow towards commodities and companies critical to the military-industrial complex, such as producers of copper, steel, and rare earth metals.

In an environment characterized by a series of sector-specific bull runs (e.g., from semis to metals), a winning strategy is to actively trade breakouts as they occur. This capitalizes on rotational leadership and momentum rather than relying on a static portfolio.

In an era of financial repression and heavy government intervention, the most effective investment strategy is to identify sectors receiving direct government support. By positioning capital near these "money spigots," investors can benefit from policies designed to manage the economy, regardless of traditional market fundamentals.

M&A activity is not constant; it ebbs and flows with the political climate. Administrations perceived as "anti-M&A" can significantly slow deals. Founders looking for a strategic acquisition should consider the current political cycle as a key factor in their exit timing.

With major US policy variables like tariffs and fiscal stimulus now more defined, investors should shift focus from predicting policy direction to analyzing how businesses and consumers react to these established policies, as this will drive market outcomes.

The traditional relationship where economic performance dictated political outcomes has flipped. Now, political priorities like tariff policies, reshoring, and populist movements are the primary drivers of economic trends, creating a more unpredictable environment for investors.

Decades of underperformance, driven by government policy favoring other sectors, have left the commodities space (metals, oil & gas) without a new generation of "rockstar" investors. This talent and capital vacuum means that even small inflows from passive strategies could trigger outsized price moves as capital rotates.

Despite expected legislative gridlock, investors should focus on the executive branch. The president's most impactful market tools, such as tariff policy and deregulation via executive agencies, do not require congressional approval. Significant policy shifts can therefore occur even when Congress is divided and inactive.