The primary indicator of a healthy bull market is when technical breakouts are sustained and lead to higher prices. If breakouts consistently fail and your positions stagnate, it's a red flag that the underlying trend is weakening, even if indices are high.
When a commodity sector is rallying, resist the temptation to chase laggards (the "degeneracy tail" like platinum). Instead, focus capital on the established leaders (gold/silver), as chasing underperformers often leads to poor risk-adjusted returns.
In an environment characterized by a series of sector-specific bull runs (e.g., from semis to metals), a winning strategy is to actively trade breakouts as they occur. This capitalizes on rotational leadership and momentum rather than relying on a static portfolio.
Actively promoting extreme bullishness for a position you hold is counterproductive. It clouds judgment, ignores risk (like a potential double top), and invites a painful market correction as traders become emotionally attached and fail to sell when necessary.
The sectors that outperform in the initial year of a new presidential administration can provide a roadmap for market trends over the subsequent years. This political-macro overlay suggests focusing on current leaders, like metals, for sustained performance.
Establish a foundational, long-term position in physical precious metals first. This "bedrock" provides stability and conviction, allowing you to then make more tactical, risk-managed trades in leveraged but more volatile assets like gold and silver miners.
When an asset fails to rally despite a perfect narrative backdrop (e.g., rate cuts, debasement fears), it's a significant warning. Bitcoin's struggle, combined with a major whale exit, suggests the bull case is weaker than sentiment implies.
The seemingly obscure Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market holds a key catalyst for precious metals. A breakout in 10-year JGB yields above its 2% resistance could signal a serious sovereign debt issue, driving massive capital flight into gold.
Use signals like blow-off tops in adjacent assets (e.g., Oracle for AI) to gauge a sector's maturity. This framework helps differentiate "late inning" trades like AI from "early inning" opportunities like gold miners, guiding effective capital rotation.