The administration's explicit focus on re-shoring manufacturing and preparing for potential geopolitical conflict provides a clear investment playbook. Capital should flow towards commodities and companies critical to the military-industrial complex, such as producers of copper, steel, and rare earth metals.
The establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is a monumental act of legitimization, positioning Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. However, investors should not expect large-scale open market purchases; the SBR will likely grow slowly and organically through asset seizures.
Despite high prices, Bitcoin sentiment is terrible, and the market feels 'boring.' This is a strong positive indicator because it shows speculative retail traders ('tourists') are absent, leaving a solid base of committed holders and institutions. A boring market is difficult to short.
Current AI tools are empowering laypeople to generate a flood of low-quality legal filings. This 'sludge' overwhelms the courts and creates more work for skilled attorneys who must respond to the influx of meritless litigation, ironically boosting demand for the very profession AI is meant to disrupt.
Bitcoin miners have inadvertently become a key part of the AI infrastructure boom. Their most valuable asset is not their hardware but their pre-existing, large-scale energy contracts. AI companies need this power, forcing partnerships that make miners a valuable pick-and-shovel play on AI.
The advent of super-intelligent AI challenges the core tenets of free-market capitalism. When human labor competes against entities that are exponentially more capable, the 'creative destruction' model could lead to mass unemployment and social instability, forcing a move away from pure capitalism.
The long-held belief that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable four-year cycle is obsolete. The primary drivers are now global liquidity (M2) and broader business cycles, specifically manufacturing sector performance. Investors clinging to the old halving model risk mis-timing the market.
Smaller public companies holding Bitcoin have failed to replicate MicroStrategy's success. Their model depends on Bitcoin's price rising consistently to allow for more debt issuance and acquisitions. The recent sideways market has broken this flywheel, collapsing their valuations into 'Bitcoin penny stocks.'
A 100-year chart of the S&P 500 priced in gold shows a major cyclical peak was hit in late 2021, similar to 1929 and 2000. This inflection point suggests a long-term, decade-plus trend reversal favoring hard assets like gold and Bitcoin over U.S. equities.