Analysts are now looking beyond U.S. shale to a concept of 'Global Shale,' with Argentina's Vaca Muerta as a dynamic new frontier. Its rock quality is considered better than the Permian basin, allowing for lower break-even costs and creating a scalable, low-cost source of future supply.

The spike in 1970s oil prices was a direct reaction to the U.S. abandoning the gold standard. Oil-producing countries were no longer being paid in gold-backed dollars, so they raised prices from $3 to $40 per barrel to compensate for the currency's rapid loss of purchasing power.

The most effective shorts in cyclical industries aren't just a bet against the macro trend. The best opportunities arise when a commodity's price is already falling, and you can short a specific company whose weak management team is likely to execute poorly, creating a 'double whammy.'

Contrary to bearish sentiment, oil demand has consistently exceeded expectations. The market's weakness stems from a supply glut, primarily from the Americas, which has outpaced demand growth by more than twofold, leading to a structural surplus and significant inventory builds.

An acute supply squeeze in copper is imminent as massive U.S. imports create a severe inventory dislocation. With LME stocks dwindling to critical levels, J.P. Morgan predicts prices must spike to reverse the arbitrage and incentivize the flow of metal out of the U.S. to where it's more needed.

A potential price collapse will be averted by the market's own circular logic. Sub-$60 prices will stimulate an extra 500,000 barrels per day of demand from price-sensitive regions while simultaneously forcing high-cost non-OPEC producers to shut down production, creating a natural market equilibrium.

The market has a natural floor. For U.S. shale, a WTI price of $47 represents a zero-return level where drilling and completions halt. For Russia, a Brent price below $42 means operators face negative margins, forcing well shut-ins and providing a backstop against a complete price collapse.

Unlike more volatile shale production, large-scale offshore projects from Exxon in Guyana and Petrobras in Brazil are sanctioned years in advance. This provides analysts with a highly reliable and visible pipeline of new, low-cost barrels, cementing the forecast for a sustained supply surplus.

Based on its energy (BTU) equivalent, the price of natural gas has historically been about one-sixth the price of a barrel of oil. Currently, it trades at a much steeper discount (around 1/20th), making it arguably the most undervalued commodity in the last 50 years.