Early-stage investors shouldn't be deterred by a small current market size. The key is assessing the potential for rapid growth and future scale. Many massive companies emerged from markets that initially appeared small, proving that market creation and expansion are critical variables.
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While a strong business model is necessary, it doesn't generate outsized returns. The key to successful growth investing is identifying a Total Addressable Market (TAM) that consensus views as small but which you believe will be massive. This contrarian take on market size is where the real alpha is found.
Initial data suggested the market for design tools was too small to build a large business. Figma's founders bet on the trend that design was becoming a key business differentiator, which would force the market to expand. They focused on building for the trend, not the existing TAM.
During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.
When Figma started, VCs deemed the designer market too small. While this made fundraising harder, it also meant fewer competitors rushed in. This perceived niche gave Figma the time and space to build a complex, defensible product before the market's true potential became obvious to everyone.
Investors like Stacy Brown-Philpot and Aileen Lee now expect founders to demonstrate a clear, rapid path to massive scale early on. The old assumption that the next funding round would solve for scalability is gone; proof is required upfront.
Flock Safety was dismissed by VCs because its initial market of neighborhood associations seemed too small. This perception of a small TAM acted as a moat, deterring competition and allowing them to build a foundation to later expand into much larger government contracts.
VCs in 2008 rejected Shopify because the existing market of 40,000 online stores was too small. They failed to see that Shopify wasn't just serving a market; its friction-reducing product would create a much larger one.
Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
A common misconception is that market size is fixed. However, as investor Alex Rampell notes, the market for a product executed exceptionally well can be orders of magnitude larger than for a merely adequate solution. Superior execution doesn't just capture a market; it dramatically expands it.
