A common misconception is that market size is fixed. However, as investor Alex Rampell notes, the market for a product executed exceptionally well can be orders of magnitude larger than for a merely adequate solution. Superior execution doesn't just capture a market; it dramatically expands it.
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While a strong business model is necessary, it doesn't generate outsized returns. The key to successful growth investing is identifying a Total Addressable Market (TAM) that consensus views as small but which you believe will be massive. This contrarian take on market size is where the real alpha is found.
A 'dam' represents pent-up demand where users are frustrated and merely 'coping' with the status quo. Introducing a 10x better solution, often via new tech, doesn't create demand; it bursts the dam, releasing a flood of customers who see it as a magical fix for a problem they already have.
Initial data suggested the market for design tools was too small to build a large business. Figma's founders bet on the trend that design was becoming a key business differentiator, which would force the market to expand. They focused on building for the trend, not the existing TAM.
A slightly better UI or a faster experience is not enough to unseat an entrenched competitor. The new product's value must be so overwhelmingly superior that it makes the significant cost and effort of switching an obvious, undeniable decision for the customer from the very first demo.
A founder's success is more dependent on the product's intrinsic value than their operational skills. The best marketer cannot overcome the headwind of a mediocre product that doesn't deserve to be on the shelf. A great product creates a natural tailwind, making growth significantly easier and attracting opportunities.
Technical founders often mistakenly believe the best product wins. In reality, marketing and sales acumen are more critical for success. Many multi-million dollar companies have succeeded with products considered clunky or complex, purely through superior distribution and sales execution.
For venture capitalists investing in AI, the primary success indicator is massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. Traditional concerns like entry price become secondary when a company is fundamentally redefining its market size. Without this expansion, the investment is not worthwhile in the current AI landscape.
Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.
The belief that you must find an untapped, 'blue ocean' market is a fallacy. In a connected world, every opportunity is visible and becomes saturated quickly. Instead of looking for a secret angle, focus on self-awareness and superior execution within an existing market.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
