Instead of betting on specific AI models like ChatGPT, a more robust strategy is to invest in the underlying infrastructure that all AI development requires. This 'onion' approach focuses on second-order essentials like semiconductors and data centers, which are poised to grow regardless of which consumer-facing application wins.

In the AI gold rush, don't bet on the "miners" like Google and Meta, who are spending billions on a new, high-risk game. Instead, invest in the "pickaxe makers"—the essential toll bridges like TSMC and ASML that every AI company must pass through, ensuring your investment has a higher probability of success.

Cyan Banister's strategy avoids today's hot, competitive deals. The real alpha, she argues, comes from investing years earlier in the non-obvious infrastructure that will enable the *next* technology wave, securing lower prices and better ownership.

When a new technology stack like AI emerges, the infrastructure layer (chips, networking) inflects first and has the most identifiable winners. Sacerdote argues the application and model layers are riskier and less predictable, similar to the early, chaotic days of internet search engines before Google's dominance.

A VC's job isn't to be a static sector expert but to understand the latest technological innovation (e.g., the iPhone, AI) and invest in its second and third-order effects. M13 pivoted from D2C to commerce infrastructure as the underlying tech wave shifted.

Instead of betting on which AI models or applications will win, Karmel Capital focuses on the infrastructure layer (neocloud companies). This "pick and shovel" strategy provides exposure to the entire ecosystem's growth with lower valuations and less risk, as infrastructure is essential regardless of who wins at the top layers.

When investing in AI, the focus should be on companies building durable, multi-purpose infrastructure or solving real-world problems with a sustainable data flywheel. This approach is superior to backing firms with impressive tech demonstrations that lack a clear, defensible business model.

Gravy's current strategy focuses on the "picks and shovels" of emerging tech. Instead of betting on specific AI applications, he invests in the underlying infrastructure that all AI companies need, such as computer chip and rare metals suppliers.

Rather than picking a winning AI or crypto, the smarter investment is in the 'picks and shovels.' This means focusing on the infrastructure every autonomous agent will require to transact—such as wallets, custody services, and blockchain rails—regardless of which specific application succeeds.