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O'Reilly defines judgment as a mix of knowledge (gained from learning), experience (gained through action with consequences), and the ability to make choices with incomplete data. Hiring processes should test for all three components, not just a candidate's stated experience.

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Instead of focusing solely on a candidate's current skills, Figma's CEO looks for their 'slope,' or their trajectory of rapid learning and improvement. This is assessed by analyzing their history of decision-making and growth mindset, betting on their future potential rather than just their present abilities.

Before hiring for a critical function, founders should do the job themselves, even if they aren't experts. The goal isn't mastery, but to deeply understand the role's challenges. This experience is crucial for setting a high hiring bar and being able to accurately assess if a candidate will truly up-level the team.

A frequent hiring error is choosing candidates because you believe they possess "magical knowledge" from their specific background that will solve all problems. These hires often fail by rigidly applying an old playbook. Prioritize adaptable, curious problem-solvers over those with seemingly perfect but ultimately static domain expertise.

Prioritize candidates who have navigated difficult situations. They learn more from tough times than from being at a constantly successful company where mistakes might be masked by overall growth. Adversity builds crucial problem-solving skills and resilience that are invaluable to a growing organization.

Distinguish between candidates with 20 years of evolving experience versus those with one year of experience repeated 20 times. True expertise comes from continuous learning and development, not just tenure. This framework helps identify stagnant performers who may appear qualified on paper.

When hiring, prioritize a candidate's speed of learning over their initial experience. An inexperienced but rapidly improving employee will quickly surpass a more experienced but stagnant one. The key predictor of long-term value is not experience, but intelligence, defined as the rate of learning.

Don't be paralyzed by the fear of making a bad hire. View hiring as an educated guess. The real knowledge comes after they've started working. Firing isn't a failure, but the confirmation of a mismatched hypothesis. This reframes hiring from a high-stakes decision to an iterative process of finding the right fit.

Infinimmune's hiring process prioritizes 'judgment under uncertainty' by actively screening for people who are comfortable admitting the limits of their expertise. Wyatt McDonnell believes a team member who is confidently wrong is far more destructive to a high-stakes project than one who can honestly identify their knowledge gaps.

The definition of a top-tier hire isn't just about skills, but also the confidence to operate autonomously and make decisions as if they were the CEO of their domain. The goal is to build a team of empowered leaders you can unleash, not a team of employees you need to constantly manage.

Strong engineering teams are built by interviews that test a candidate's ability to reason about trade-offs and assimilate new information quickly. Interviews focused on recalling past experiences or mindsets that can be passed with enough practice do not effectively filter for high mental acuity and problem-solving skills.

Hire for Judgment by Assessing Knowledge, Experience, and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty | RiffOn