Traffic from ChatGPT ads is expected to convert at a far higher rate than traditional search. Early advertisers can capitalize on this by buying ads for much less than their true value before the market matures and costs normalize, creating a significant arbitrage window.

While other AI companies are hesitant, Google is expected to lead LLM ad integration. As a company built on ads, it is culturally positioned to implement monetization quickly and effectively, unlike competitors that may view ads as a necessary evil rather than a core competency.

The complex ad tech landscape can be boiled down to three viable business models. A company must either 1) own a first-party surface with coveted users (Google), 2) become the best at delivering a specific, measurable result (Applovin), or 3) be the exclusive demand aggregator for large advertisers (The Trade Desk).

Google's AI search panels intercept user queries, causing massive click-through rate drops (up to 89%) for even the highest-ranking organic results. This breaks the long-standing model where top rankings directly translated to traffic and revenue, making traditional SEO metrics obsolete.

Google's Universal Commerce Protocol allows users to buy products or book demos directly in AI-powered search results. Marketing success is no longer about site clicks, but about influencing decisions and completing transactions within Google’s ecosystem, a fundamental change for all marketers.

Instead of traditional cost-per-click models, ChatGPT could pioneer a "verified outcome" system where advertisers pay only upon a completed transaction and user satisfaction. This would inherently favor advertisers with superior products that lead to actual conversions, improving ad quality and relevance for all users.

Meta's core moat is its ability to solve the classic advertiser's dilemma: knowing which half of their ad spend works. By providing granular data on impressions, conversions, and ROI, it created what Pat Dorsey called the perfect advertising platform.

ChatGPT's ad platform launched with a simple CPM model and limited targeting, similar to Netflix's. This isn't a sign of weakness but a strategic necessity. To build a sophisticated, conversion-optimized ad system, a platform must first launch a "primitive MVP" to bootstrap the very conversion data required for advanced targeting.

The next major shift in ad tech is performance-based CTV. This merges the attention of linear TV with the accountability of digital media, allowing advertisers to tie ad spend directly to outcomes like sales—a revolutionary change from traditional television's limitations.