While a Trump administration might be tempted to cut a deal and withdraw from conflict with Iran, Israel's post-October 7th security doctrine has changed. Netanyahu's government will likely push hard for complete regime change, complicating any US efforts to de-escalate for political convenience.

The US, under Trump, would accept a more manageable 'regime alteration'—a change in leadership behavior without toppling the government. Israel, however, views the complete removal of the current Iranian regime as the only true measure of success in the conflict, creating divergent end goals.

Contrary to his hawkish reputation, Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately lowering Israel's profile regarding Iran's internal protests. This strategic silence aims to prevent the embattled Iranian regime from feeling cornered and launching a preemptive attack out of paranoia.

A leader's bombastic, civilization-ending rhetoric often serves as a distraction from the military's actual strategy. While Trump threatened to "wipe out" Iran, the US military was simultaneously conducting a targeted strike, showing a disconnect between public posturing and operational reality.

President Trump and his administration are sending contradictory signals on the Iran conflict, simultaneously claiming it is 'very complete' while also preparing for further action. This inconsistency confuses markets and allies, pointing to a severe lack of a coherent and unified strategy within the administration.

The public threats of a military strike against Iran may be a high-stakes negotiating tactic, consistent with Trump's style of creating chaos before seeking a deal. The goal is likely not war, which would be politically damaging, but to force Iran into economic concessions or a new agreement on US terms.

The administration justified its attack by claiming it had to preempt an inevitable Israeli strike and the subsequent Iranian retaliation. This reasoning is flawed because it ignores the more direct and less escalatory option: using US influence to stop its ally, Israel, from launching the initial attack.

Despite exchanging missile and airstrikes, both Iran and Israel appear to be exercising restraint. Iran's missile salvos are smaller than past attacks, and both sides are aiming to send messages without triggering an uncontrollable, wider conflict, thus preserving an 'off-ramp' to de-escalate.

Following a joint US-Israel war against Iran, key figures in the Trump administration began publicly airing their pre-war reservations. This orchestrated leaking suggests a conscious effort to shift blame and reframe the narrative, distancing Washington from the operation's outcomes as the conflict winds down.