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Military analyst Andrew Exum predicted that the war in Ukraine would become 'the best excuse the US army ever found to never say the words Iraq and Afghanistan again.' The institution is rapidly pivoting to large-scale combat operations, dismantling specialized units like the Asymmetric Warfare Group and discarding hard-won counterinsurgency knowledge.

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Under Secretary of War Emil Michael reveals a strategic pivot away from restrictive, "fair fight" rules of engagement. The new approach, reminiscent of the Powell Doctrine, emphasizes using overwhelming force to achieve clear objectives quickly and minimize US casualties.

The military fails to effectively transfer knowledge between rotating units in a conflict zone. Incoming units often discard their predecessors' experience, believing they can do better, thus repeating the same errors and failing to build on crucial, hard-won lessons.

The policy of rotating commanders on one-year tours was a critical strategic flaw in Afghanistan. Each new commander arrived believing they had the "recipe for success" and would change the strategy, resulting in a series of disconnected, short-term plans that prevented long-term progress.

In Ukraine, infantrymen often act as observers, calling in drone strikes rather than engaging in firefights. Engaging with small arms can reveal their concealed positions to enemy drones, making them vulnerable. This marks a fundamental shift in the infantry's primary role on a drone-dominated battlefield.

The removal of Ukraine's defense minister may reflect a deeper strategic debate. Established military leaders are pushing back against a "gamified" approach where tactical units chase high-value targets for points. They advocate for a more traditional strategy where strikes are explicitly tied to achieving larger, defined military objectives.

The Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) was shuttered not due to ineffectiveness, but because it successfully delivered uncomfortable truths from the battlefield to senior leadership. Like internal consultants, their valuable but critical feedback threatened the status quo, leading to its elimination.

The US Army's extensive counterinsurgency experience from the Global War on Terror is largely irrelevant in modern peer-level conflicts. Forces like the Ukrainians and Russians now possess far more relevant and recent combat experience, particularly regarding drone warfare and large-scale conventional operations.

The conflicts in Ukraine and Iran reveal a paradigm shift in military strategy. Expensive, high-risk assets like B2 bombers are becoming obsolete. The future is asymmetric warfare: swarms of cheap, disposable drones or 'motorcycles with bombs,' where losing most of the units is acceptable if a few reach their target.

Twenty years of focusing on counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan caused the Army's core competencies for conventional warfare to degrade significantly. For example, short-range air defense (SHORAD) capabilities were so gutted that the Army had to rebuild the entire skill set from scratch, as there were no experienced NCOs left to train new soldiers.

Contrary to expectations of a high-tech war, the conflict in Ukraine demonstrates enduring principles of warfare. The superiority of defense over offense, the difficulty of breakthroughs without air power, and the tendency toward attrition are all classic lessons that would be recognizable to strategists from past major conflicts.