Constant military pressure and assassinations remove any disincentive for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons. When a regime is already being attacked, acquiring a nuclear deterrent becomes its most logical and effective path to survival, mirroring North Korea's strategy.

The IRGC increasingly wields the true power in Iran, while the Supreme Leader's role is becoming more symbolic. He serves as a "sacred totem" and a "lightning rod for criticism" but is ultimately a facilitator of IRGC influence rather than a check on its power.

The risk posed by a nuclear-armed state depends heavily on its governing ideology. A theocratic regime like Iran, motivated by celestial beliefs, is less susceptible to traditional deterrence than a totalitarian regime like North Korea, which is primarily focused on its own survival, making Iran a greater nuclear threat.

The president's explicit threat is perceived as a credible statement of genocidal intent, given US nuclear capabilities. This erodes any pro-American sentiment, uniting even pro-democracy Iranians with their regime for protection and fueling support for developing a nuclear deterrent.

Before the conflict, Iran maintained a "credible but not actual" nuclear program as a deterrent. By assassinating the supreme leader and launching an air war, the US has proven this strategy insufficient, forcing Iran to pursue an actual nuclear weapon for survival.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's most powerful institution, is the true kingmaker. A Supreme Leader without the IRGC's backing is effectively powerless, regardless of constitutional or religious standing. This makes any assassination of the leader a less effective strategy for regime change.

Beyond being the IRGC's favored candidate, Mojtaba Khamenei's selection was pragmatic. As his father's right-hand man, he intimately understands the complex business and institutional mechanics of the Supreme Leader's office, allowing him to "hit the ground running" during a crisis.

The targeted Iranian supreme leader had issued two religious edicts (fatwas) against developing nuclear weapons. His assassination removed this key restraint and installed his more aggressive son, who has not issued similar edicts, thereby inadvertently accelerating the nuclear threat.

Iran is transitioning into a 'Third Islamic Republic,' a phase where the military and security bureaucracy, not the clerics, hold dominant power. This shift marks a state where the military elite controls political and economic levers, bringing Ayatollah Khamenei's long-term project to fruition.