Iran's success in disrupting global shipping validates the PRC's belief that the U.S. and its allies lack the resilience to withstand economic pressure on key maritime chokepoints. This bolsters China's confidence regarding a potential future Taiwan Strait crisis.

The current Iran crisis could mirror the 1957 Suez Crisis, which marked the transfer of global power from the British Empire to the U.S. If China successfully leverages the situation to its diplomatic and economic advantage, it could signal a similar shift in global power away from the United States.

From China's perspective, the US being bogged down in the Iran conflict is an "unforced error" that reduces American focus and diplomatic bandwidth. This distraction is seen as an opportunity for China to gain an upper hand in ongoing trade and technology disputes.

Contrary to viewing the Iran conflict as a distraction for the US, Taiwanese observers are encouraged. They interpret US action as a defense of democracy against autocracy, drawing a parallel to their own situation with China. This bolsters their hope for American support in a potential conflict.

A poorly executed war in Iran is creating the conditions for a domestic political backlash against defense spending. This jeopardizes the multi-year effort to build up munition stockpiles and advanced systems specifically for a potential Taiwan contingency, thereby weakening America's long-term posture against China.

The confrontation with Iran should be viewed as the main flashpoint for the reorganization of the global order. It embodies 'Thucydides' Trap,' where the rising power of China challenges the established dominance of the US, with the conflict serving as the messy, real-world arena for this power struggle.

While the U.S. is preoccupied with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, China has significantly increased its military presence around Taiwan. This may not be just a show of force, but a strategic dress rehearsal for an invasion, testing capabilities while global attention is focused elsewhere.

The Iran conflict creates a mixed outcome for China. Its inability to meaningfully support an ally makes it look 'feckless'. However, compared to the 'ragged' U.S. war effort, China successfully positions itself as a more stable and responsible global leader, a narrative it pushes through its global propaganda network.

By prioritizing resource acquisition in its own sphere of influence (Venezuela), the US has effectively signaled it cannot or will not defend Taiwan. This action, whether an explicit deal or not, acts as a 'handshake,' giving China the green light to pursue its own regional strategic objectives.