Monetary policy and bank regulation are two sides of the same coin. Since private banks create money through lending, any regulatory action (like changing capital requirements) directly influences the money supply. Giving the executive branch control over regulation would undermine an independent monetary policy.

The CFTC views informational advantages in prediction markets, like knowing about a secret Super Bowl ad, as a form of insider trading. The agency confirms it has legal authority under its anti-fraud rule, similar to the SEC's, to surveil markets and prosecute such cases, extending the doctrine beyond traditional corporate securities.

The Fed's independence doesn't mean isolation. A functional working relationship with the Treasury is crucial for practical matters like ensuring Treasury market liquidity and coordinating bank regulation, areas where responsibilities overlap.

According to PIMCO's CIO, post-crisis regulation heavily targets the last failure point (e.g., banks and consumer lending post-GFC). This makes previously regulated sectors safer while risk migrates to areas that escaped scrutiny, like today's non-financial corporate credit market.

The market is seeing a rise in vertically integrated models where one company owns the exchange, broker, and clearinghouse. This, along with direct-to-consumer models, creates inconsistencies with traditional, separated structures. The CFTC recognizes the need to create holistic rules to prevent regulatory arbitrage between these new models.

Kalshi’s key strategic move was getting its prediction markets regulated by the federal CFTC, similar to commodities. This established federal preemption, meaning state-level laws don't apply. This allowed them to operate nationwide with a single regulator instead of seeking approval in 50 different states.

While fast-moving, unregulated competitors like FTX garner hype, a deliberate, compliance-first approach builds a more resilient and defensible business in sectors like finance. This unsexy path is the key to building a lasting, mainstream company with a strong regulatory moat.

M&A is driven by CEO confidence, which is heavily influenced by the regulatory environment. A subtle shift in regulatory posture from a definitive 'no' to a 'maybe' is enough to unlock massive pent-up demand for transformative deals, potentially leading to a historic year for M&A.

Prediction market platforms are promoting their products as 'CFTC-approved,' but this is misleading. They use a self-certification process where the CFTC has 24 hours to object. A lack of objection is not an endorsement, a critical distinction that CME's CEO argues is not being disclosed to retail users.