The CFTC views informational advantages in prediction markets, like knowing about a secret Super Bowl ad, as a form of insider trading. The agency confirms it has legal authority under its anti-fraud rule, similar to the SEC's, to surveil markets and prosecute such cases, extending the doctrine beyond traditional corporate securities.

Senator Warren argues that just as food safety laws allow consumers to trust products without personal testing, financial regulations should protect investors from hidden scams. This "cop on the beat" creates the confidence necessary for true democratization of investing, rather than stifling markets.

Speculation is often maligned as mere gambling, but it is a critical component for price discovery, liquidity, and risk transfer in any healthy financial market. Without speculators, markets would be inefficient. Prediction markets are an explicit tool to harness this power for accurate forecasting.

The CFTC and SEC leadership advocate for remaining separate agencies due to their distinct missions: risk management versus capital formation. They argue the key to resolving jurisdictional issues is better coordination, not consolidation, and plan to implement a new memorandum of understanding to harmonize rules and share data.

Campaigns & Elections maintains a strict "no trades" policy, refusing to exchange advertising for a vendor's services. This ensures they are never perceived as favoring one service provider over another, protecting their core value as an impartial platform for their entire industry and avoiding conflicts of interest.

The market is seeing a rise in vertically integrated models where one company owns the exchange, broker, and clearinghouse. This, along with direct-to-consumer models, creates inconsistencies with traditional, separated structures. The CFTC recognizes the need to create holistic rules to prevent regulatory arbitrage between these new models.

The idea that government should "stay out of" markets is a flawed model. The government is an inherent economic actor, and choosing deregulation or non-intervention is an active policy choice, not a neutral stance. This view acknowledges politics and government are inseparable from market outcomes.

The CFTC can regulate prediction markets on diverse events because the legal definition of "commodity" is incredibly broad. The Commodity Exchange Act covers virtually everything in commerce except for a few specific carve-outs like onions and box office receipts, granting the agency expansive jurisdiction over non-traditional markets.

Prediction market platforms are promoting their products as 'CFTC-approved,' but this is misleading. They use a self-certification process where the CFTC has 24 hours to object. A lack of objection is not an endorsement, a critical distinction that CME's CEO argues is not being disclosed to retail users.