The "build it and they will come" mindset is a trap. Founders should treat marketing and brand-building not as a later-stage activity to be "turned on," but as a core muscle to be developed in parallel with the product from day one.
By defending the pro rata rights of early backers against new, powerful investors, founders play an "infinite game." This builds a reputation for fairness that compounds over time, attracting higher-quality partners and investors in future rounds.
Intense competition forces companies to innovate their products and marketing more aggressively. This rivalry validates the market's potential, accelerates its growth, and ultimately benefits the entire ecosystem and its customers, rather than being a purely zero-sum game.
While fast-moving, unregulated competitors like FTX garner hype, a deliberate, compliance-first approach builds a more resilient and defensible business in sectors like finance. This unsexy path is the key to building a lasting, mainstream company with a strong regulatory moat.
The primary value for the vast majority of prediction market users isn't trading but consuming the market's data as a form of real-time, aggregated news. This reframes the user base as a media audience of 'lurkers' rather than a community of active traders.
Facing the same blocker repeatedly—in Kalshi's case, government rejection—is uniquely demoralizing. It causes the team to question the core strategy and leadership's judgment, leading to significant attrition and a collapse in faith that is harder to recover from than varied challenges.
Top board member Alfred Lin provides counter-cyclical mentorship. He champions the company during tough times to boost morale and plays devil's advocate during success to prevent complacency. This keeps founders grounded and forces nuanced thinking about trade-offs.
While massive "kingmaking" funding rounds can accelerate growth, they don't guarantee victory. A superior product can still triumph over a capital-rich but less-efficient competitor, as seen in the DoorDash vs. Uber Eats battle. Capital can create inefficiency and unforced errors.