The biggest risk for a late-stage private company is a growth slowdown. This forces a valuation model shift from a high multiple on future growth to a much lower multiple on current cash flow—a painful transition when you can't exit to the public markets.

With hundreds of unicorns and only about 20 tech IPOs per year, the market has a 30-year backlog. Consolidations between mid-size unicorns, like the potential Fivetran and dbt deal, are a necessary strategy for VCs to create IPO-ready companies and generate much-needed liquidity from their portfolios.

A significant shift has occurred: private equity firms are no longer actively pursuing acquisitions of solid SaaS companies that fall short of IPO scale. This disappearance of a reliable exit path forces VCs and founders to find new strategies for liquidity and growth.

Top-tier private companies like Stripe and Databricks are actively choosing to delay IPOs, viewing the public market as an inferior "product." With access to cheaper private capital and freedom from quarterly scrutiny and activist investors, staying private offers a better environment to build long-term value.

The surge in Australian VC funding in 2020-21 created 500-900 software companies that are now under pressure to find an exit. This cohort of 'venture orphans' represents a significant, time-sensitive acquisition opportunity for HoldCos and other buyers.

Unlike venture-backed startups that chase lightning in a bottle (often ending in zero), private equity offers a different path. Operators can buy established, cash-flowing businesses and apply their growth skills in a less risky environment with shorter time horizons and a higher probability of a positive financial outcome.

For high-growth companies, reaching a $100M ARR milestone no longer automatically triggers IPO plans. With abundant private capital, many founders now see going public as an unnecessary burden, preferring to avoid SEC reporting and gain liquidity through private growth rounds.

For years, founders of profitable but slow-growing SaaS companies could rely on a private equity acquisition as a viable exit. That safety net is gone. PE firms are now just as wary of AI disruption and growth decay as VCs, leaving many 'pretty good' SaaS companies with no buyers.

The abundance of private capital means the most successful companies no longer need to go public for growth funding. This disrupts the traditional VC model, where IPOs are a primary exit path, forcing firms to re-evaluate how and when they achieve liquidity for their limited partners, even for their best assets.