Ultra-late-stage companies like Ramp and Stripe represent a new category: "private as public." They could be public but choose not to be. Investors should expect returns similar to mid-cap public stocks (e.g., 30-40% YoY), not the 2-3x multiples of traditional venture rounds. The asset class is different, so the return profile must be too.

Raising too much money at a high valuation puts a "bogey on your back." It forces a "shoot the moon" strategy, which can decrease capital efficiency, make future fundraising harder, and limit potential exit opportunities by making the company too expensive for acquirers.

During hype cycles, massive venture funding allows startups to offer products below cost to capture market share. If the company fails to achieve a high-value exit, the Limited Partner's capital has effectively been transferred to consumers in the form of discounts, without generating a financial return for the investors.

Success in late-stage venture resembles trading more than traditional investing—it's about buying and selling on momentum. However, this "new public market" has a critical flaw: while liquidity exists on the way up, it vanishes on the downside, making it impossible to execute a true trading strategy when a correction occurs.

The greatest systemic threat from the booming private credit market isn't excessive leverage but its heavy concentration in technology companies. A significant drop in tech enterprise value multiples could trigger a widespread event, as tech constitutes roughly half of private credit portfolios.

For a proven, hyper-growth AI company, traditional business risks (market, operational, tech) are minimal. The sole risk for a late-stage investor is overpaying for several years of future growth that may decelerate faster than anticipated.

Rapidly scaling companies can have fantastic unit economics but face constant insolvency risk. The cash required for advance hiring and inventory means you're perpetually on the edge of collapse, even while growing revenue by triple digits. You are going out of business every day.

The trend of companies staying private longer and raising huge late-stage rounds isn't just about VC exuberance. It's a direct consequence of a series of regulations (like Sarbanes-Oxley) that made going public extremely costly and onerous. As a result, the private capital markets evolved to fill the gap, fundamentally changing venture capital.

By staying private longer, elite companies like SpaceX allow venture and growth funds to capture compounding returns previously reserved for public markets. This extended "growth super cycle" has become the most profitable strategy for late-stage private investors.