With fund lifecycles stretching well beyond the traditional 10 years, LPs are increasingly seeking liquidity through secondary sales. This trend isn't just a sign of pressure but a necessary market evolution to manage illiquid, long-duration assets.
The current AI landscape mirrors the historic Windows-Intel duopoly. OpenAI is the new Microsoft, controlling the user-facing software layer, while NVIDIA acts as the new Intel, dominating essential chip infrastructure. This parallel suggests a long-term power concentration is forming.
Despite losing money, OpenAI leveraged its massive user base to secure warrants for 10% of AMD. This contrasts with NVIDIA, who received equity in OpenAI, showcasing how user control dictates power in strategic partnerships, even with hardware giants.
In the current AI boom, companies are raising subsequent funding rounds at the same high revenue multiples as previous ones, months apart. This is because growth rates aren't decelerating as expected, challenging the wisdom that valuation multiples must compress as revenue scales.
Bringing in a professional CEO to replace a founder can succeed only if the company has already achieved product-market fit. If PMF is still elusive, hiring an operator to find it is a fatal mistake. The unique, entrepreneurial act of discovering PMF belongs to the founder.
A significant shift has occurred: private equity firms are no longer actively pursuing acquisitions of solid SaaS companies that fall short of IPO scale. This disappearance of a reliable exit path forces VCs and founders to find new strategies for liquidity and growth.
The initial app integrations for ChatGPT lack a compelling "magic moment" and feel similar to Slack's app ecosystem, where connectors exist but are rarely used for complex tasks. This raises questions about whether users will meaningfully engage with another app marketplace.
When a growth company stalls below IPO threshold and PE buyers are absent, the crucial move is to reignite the founder's motivation. An "Equity for Growth" (EFG) grant, tied to future performance, gives vested founders a new reason to pursue a second, multi-year act.
Unlike traditional SaaS where a bootstrapped company could eventually catch up to funded rivals, the AI landscape is different. The high, ongoing cost of talent and compute means an early capital advantage becomes a permanent, widening moat, making it nearly impossible for capital-light players to compete.
Unlike Private Equity or public markets, venture is maximally forgiving of high entry valuations. The potential for exponential growth (high variance) means a breakout success can still generate massive returns, even if the initial price was wrong, explaining the industry's tolerance for seemingly irrational valuations.
Deals like Naveen Rao's $1B raise at a $5B pre-money valuation seem to break venture math. However, investors justify this by stipulating that proven founders in hard infrastructure markets compress key risks, making market size, not execution, the primary remaining question.
Even while losing significant money, a company's massive user base can be its core asset. This leverage allows it to influence the market cap of its suppliers simply by choosing them, demonstrating that user aggregation is more powerful than immediate profitability in today's market.