Ultra-late-stage companies like Ramp and Stripe represent a new category: "private as public." They could be public but choose not to be. Investors should expect returns similar to mid-cap public stocks (e.g., 30-40% YoY), not the 2-3x multiples of traditional venture rounds. The asset class is different, so the return profile must be too.

Similar to the short-lived direct listing wave, the idea of staying private indefinitely will likely only apply to a handful of elite, capital-rich companies like SpaceX. The vast majority of successful startups will still follow the traditional IPO path to provide liquidity and access public markets.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

Brian Chesky argues that large, late-stage private companies experience the downsides of public scrutiny without the benefits. There's an "insatiable desire" from outsiders to "get to the truth," creating more speculative pressure than the regulated transparency of being a public company.

As top startups delay IPOs indefinitely, institutional portfolios are seeing their venture allocations morph into significant, illiquid growth equity holdings. These "private forever" companies are great businesses but create a portfolio construction problem, tying up capital that would otherwise be recycled into new venture funds.

For high-growth companies, reaching a $100M ARR milestone no longer automatically triggers IPO plans. With abundant private capital, many founders now see going public as an unnecessary burden, preferring to avoid SEC reporting and gain liquidity through private growth rounds.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.

Companies like Databricks and Stripe represent a new asset class: "Post-IPO Scale, Still Private." They have surpassed the revenue and scale typically required for an IPO but choose to remain private. This creates a distinct investment category separate from traditional late-stage venture, driven by the perceived disadvantages of public markets.

The trend of companies staying private longer and raising huge late-stage rounds isn't just about VC exuberance. It's a direct consequence of a series of regulations (like Sarbanes-Oxley) that made going public extremely costly and onerous. As a result, the private capital markets evolved to fill the gap, fundamentally changing venture capital.