Russia's propaganda strategy has evolved from disseminating alternative narratives to promoting 'vibes-based' content. Using viral media like the 'Sigma Boy' song, the aim is to foster specific feelings and ideas, such as patriarchal dominance, making it difficult to distinguish from organic trends.

Alexander Stubb outlines a threefold failure for Putin: strategically, he pushed Finland into NATO; militarily, he’s achieved minimal gains at catastrophic cost (e.g., 34,000 Russian soldiers killed in Dec.); and economically, Russia is crippled. Putin continues the war not to win, but to avoid the domestic fallout of admitting defeat.

Ukraine's most realistic theory of success is not reclaiming all territory militarily, but leveraging its advantages to stabilize the front and inflict unsustainable casualties and economic costs on Russia. This strategy aims to make the war so futile for Moscow that it forces a favorable negotiated settlement.

Putin's desire to continue the war outweighs any potential benefits offered in negotiations. This persistence is not based on a reasonable assessment of the situation but on sunk costs, personal legacy, and a belief that Russia's sheer will can outlast Western support.

Russia's reported economic growth is a mirage fueled by massive spending on a military-industrial complex that produces goods "designed to be destroyed." This war-focused sector is sucking resources, capital, and labor away from the productive civilian economy, creating a fragile system that undermines long-term prosperity.

The abundance of Colombian mercenaries is driven by military rules forcing soldiers to retire young (age 45 or after 20 years' service). This creates a continuous pool of highly experienced veterans with inadequate pensions and institutional support, making lucrative foreign military contracts an attractive alternative.

For urban Russians, the war's impact is felt through daily inconveniences that reveal pervasive state control. Constant GPS spoofing to counter drones makes navigation apps useless, while the necessity of VPNs and the loss of direct travel to Europe create a palpable sense of abnormality and isolation.

Despite perceived advantages, Russia's military performance in 2025 was poor. It achieved only incremental gains at the cost of soaring casualties, pushing their manpower losses beyond recruitment rates. This trend suggests that time is increasingly working against Moscow's ability to sustain offensive operations.

The idea that Ukraine must accept a peace deal because the war is "unwinnable" is a flawed narrative that mirrors Russian propaganda. This perspective overlooks Russia's massive daily casualties and straining wartime economy. The war is unsustainable, but arguably more so for Russia than for Ukraine.