Contrary to the image of sudden wealth leading to lavish spending, a survey shows the majority of recipients (60%) use inheritances for savings, retirement, or investments. This practical approach prioritizes long-term financial stability, with only about a third using funds for housing or debt.

The resilience of consumer spending, despite weak employment growth, is driven by affluent consumers liquidating assets or drawing down cash. This balance sheet-driven consumption explains why traditional income-based models (like savings rates) are failing to predict a slowdown.

Despite a 9.1% year-over-year increase in nominal sales, Black Friday data reveals consumers bought 4.1% fewer items and dramatically increased their use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" services. This indicates that inflation, not strong consumer health, is driving top-line revenue growth for corporations.

While high-income spending remains stable, the next wave of consumption growth will stem from a recovery in the middle-income segment. This rebound will be driven by stabilizing factors like reduced policy uncertainty and neutral monetary policy, not a major labor market acceleration.

Real consumer spending is up only 1% year-to-date (non-annualized), which annualizes to a weak 1.5%. This is a significant slowdown from the typical 2-2.5% growth in previous years, indicating that consumers are substantially pulling back their expenditures.

Contrary to the image of lottery-winner splurging, a Morgan Stanley survey shows 60% of inheritance recipients prioritize savings, retirement, or investments. Only about a third use it for housing or debt, with day-to-day consumption being a much lower priority.

Analysis of delinquency rates revealed that high-income earners were initially seeing the fastest increases. The key differentiator for financial stability was not income but wealth, particularly homeownership, which provided a financial cushion against economic shocks.

While larger tax refunds offer a financial lift, low-income households face simultaneous headwinds. The benefit of increased income is at risk of being neutralized by rising costs from tariff-driven inflation and the expiration of Affordable Care Act credits, creating a precarious financial situation for this group.

While the overall debt service ratio appears low, this average is skewed by high-income households with minimal debt. Lower and middle-income families are facing significant financial pressure and rising delinquencies, a critical detail missed when only looking at macroeconomic aggregates.