The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.

The resilience of consumer spending, despite weak employment growth, is driven by affluent consumers liquidating assets or drawing down cash. This balance sheet-driven consumption explains why traditional income-based models (like savings rates) are failing to predict a slowdown.

The idea that a billionaire can "spend" their net worth is flawed. Their wealth is primarily in company stock; liquidating it would crash the price and signal a lack of confidence. This misunderstanding of wealth versus income fuels unrealistic proposals for solving global problems.

While high-income spending remains stable, the next wave of consumption growth will stem from a recovery in the middle-income segment. This rebound will be driven by stabilizing factors like reduced policy uncertainty and neutral monetary policy, not a major labor market acceleration.

Homeownership is the primary vehicle for intergenerational wealth creation in the United States. The average household has four times more wealth tied up in their home than in stock market investments, highlighting the severe economic impact of declining ownership rates.

The top 10% of earners, who drive 50% of consumer spending, can slash discretionary purchases overnight based on stock market fluctuations. This makes the economy more volatile than one supported by the stable, non-discretionary spending of the middle class, creating systemic fragility.

Large, ongoing fiscal deficits are now the primary driver of the U.S. economy, a factor many macro analysts are missing. This sustained government spending creates a higher floor for economic activity and asset prices, rendering traditional monetary policy indicators less effective and making the economy behave more like a fiscally dominant state.

The top 10% of US earners now drive nearly half of all consumer spending. This concentration suggests the macro-economy and stock market can remain strong even if AI causes significant unemployment for the other 90%, challenging the assumption that widespread job loss would automatically trigger an economic collapse.

The official poverty line is calculated as 3x the cost of food, a metric from the 1960s when food was a third of a household budget. Today, food is only 13% of spending while housing and healthcare have soared, making the official metric a poor reflection of modern economic hardship.