Analysis of delinquency rates revealed that high-income earners were initially seeing the fastest increases. The key differentiator for financial stability was not income but wealth, particularly homeownership, which provided a financial cushion against economic shocks.
A credit score of 720 in 2017 represents a different level of absolute risk than a 720 in 2022. The score only ranks an individual's risk relative to the entire population at a specific moment, factoring in the broader economic climate which lenders must assess separately.
Over 15 years, auto loans transformed from the best-performing loan product to the riskiest. This shift is driven by a "double whammy" of soaring vehicle prices—which outpaced even mortgage growth—and rising interest rates, compounded by overlooked costs like insurance and repairs.
By eliminating outdated constraints like the six-month activity rule and incorporating time-series data and alternative inputs like rent payments, modern credit scoring models can assess millions of creditworthy individuals, such as military personnel or young people, who were previously unscorable.
While lower-income households were hit first by inflation, a subsequent rise in delinquencies among middle and high-income groups signaled a deeper economic issue. It showed that sustained cost pressures were depleting even larger savings buffers, indicating the strain was not temporary or confined to one segment.
After a long forbearance period where many new graduates had never made a payment, the resumption of student loans saw delinquency rates spike to over 20%, more than double the historical 10% average. This reflects both immense financial strain and widespread confusion over repayment programs.
The FHFA has updated its rules to allow lenders to use newer credit scoring models, like VantageScore 4.0, for mortgages submitted to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This breaks the monopoly of an outdated 1990s-era model and can expand homeownership access to millions, particularly in rural communities.
With many "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services not reporting to credit bureaus, lenders face "stacking" risk where consumers take on invisible debt. To get a holistic view, lenders are increasingly incorporating cash flow data, like checking account trends, into their underwriting processes.