As autonomous vehicles drop the per-mile cost of ride-sharing to under $1, it will become cheaper than owning a car. This price drop will induce massive demand, shifting most transportation to these networks and creating a market exponentially larger than the current industry.

Autonomous vehicle technology will likely become a commodity layer, with most manufacturers providing their cars to existing ride-sharing networks like Uber and Lyft. Only a few companies like Tesla have the brand and scale to pursue a vertically-integrated, closed-network strategy.

Despite partnerships, major AV players like Tesla and Waymo are building independent networks. This direct-to-consumer approach could relegate current rideshare leaders Uber and Lyft to a minor role in the autonomous future, capturing less than a third of the new market they currently dominate.

The convergence of autonomous, shared, and electric mobility will drive the marginal cost of travel towards zero, resembling a utility like electricity or water. This shift will fundamentally restructure the auto industry, making personal car ownership a "nostalgic privilege" rather than a daily necessity for most people.

The true disruption from AVs isn't cheaper transport, but the transformation of cars into productive spaces—moving offices, hotel rooms, or media centers. This framing shifts the value proposition from cost savings to creating new revenue streams and unlocking vast amounts of consumer time, impacting even real estate.

ARK Invest projects an $8-10 trillion market for autonomous ride-hailing, dwarfing the current ~$60B market of Uber and Lyft. This isn't just about replacing drivers; it's about a 4x cost reduction per mile (from ~$1.10 to $0.25). This dramatic price drop will absorb the entire transportation market, not just the existing ride-hailing segment.

The transition to AVs won't be a sudden replacement of human drivers. Uber's CEO argues that for the next two decades, a hybrid network where humans and AVs coexist will be a more efficient and effective solution, allowing for a responsible transition while serving diverse customer preferences.

Despite rapid software advances like deep learning, the deployment of self-driving cars was a 20-year process because it had to integrate with the mature automotive industry's supply chains, infrastructure, and business models. This serves as a reminder that AI's real-world impact is often constrained by the readiness of the sectors it aims to disrupt.

CEO David Risher claims data refutes the idea that AVs displace human drivers. Instead, Lyft's growth is faster in cities with AVs like San Francisco and Phoenix. He suggests AVs "oxygenate the market," expanding overall demand for ridesharing rather than just cannibalizing existing rides.