The old publishing mindset of competing against other books is obsolete. In the digital age, authors collectively compete for attention against platforms like TikTok and Netflix. Therefore, promoting other books is a positive-sum activity that grows the entire market of readers.
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Intense competition forces companies to innovate their products and marketing more aggressively. This rivalry validates the market's potential, accelerates its growth, and ultimately benefits the entire ecosystem and its customers, rather than being a purely zero-sum game.
An antitrust case against a Netflix-Warner Bros. merger is weak if the market is defined as all consumer 'eyeballs,' not just paid streaming. Including massive platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram, where most people spend their time, creates a landscape of intense competition, undermining monopoly claims.
The common view of competitors carving up a fixed market pie is false. In reality, you and your competitors are likely fighting over a tiny sliver of one platform. The true market is a vast ocean of untapped channels and attention.
Platforms like TikTok have shifted the paradigm where success is tied to each post's individual merit, not the creator's follower base. A single viral video can generate massive reach and sales, even if other posts have low engagement, a trend now adopted by LinkedIn, YouTube, and others.
While Generative AI will dramatically lower content creation costs, it will also lead to a massive explosion of new content. This dynamic decreases the value of existing IP libraries but massively benefits distribution platforms like Netflix and YouTube, which aggregate eyeballs and win in a world of content abundance.
The value of a large, pre-existing audience is decreasing. Powerful platform algorithms are becoming so effective at identifying and distributing high-quality content that a new creator with great material can get significant reach without an established following. This levels the playing field and reduces the incumbent advantage.
Publishers and agents now prioritize an author's social media following over most other factors. The size of an author's advance and their book's sales potential are seen as directly correlated to their online footprint. Aspiring authors must build a following before they even start writing.
The podcasting market is positive-sum. Listeners consume multiple shows, so another podcaster's success doesn't detract from yours. Adopt a filmmaker's mindset: share ideas, collaborate, and learn from peers to elevate the entire ecosystem and your own craft.
The narrative of startups "destroying" incumbents is often wrong. As shown by MongoDB coexisting with Oracle and HubSpot with Salesforce, disruptive companies can create massive value by expanding the total market, allowing both new and old players to grow simultaneously.
The myth of robust publisher marketing support is largely false for authors without massive advances. In the current landscape, an author is an entrepreneur by default. They are responsible for building an audience and driving sales, and can be a "good" or "bad" one, but cannot opt out of the role.
