Netflix executed a classic predatory pricing strategy: initially overspending on content with cheap capital to eliminate competitors, then aggregating a massive subscriber base. Now, it holds spending flat while revenue grows, dramatically improving its content-to-revenue cost ratio.
Instead of buying entire sports seasons, Netflix acquires single, high-impact events like a Christmas NFL game. This 'eventizing' strategy creates maximum buzz for a lower relative cost by turning content releases into unforgettable, can't-miss dates on the cultural calendar.
The case of Netflix in 2016, with a P/E over 300, shows that high multiples can reflect a company strategically sacrificing short-term profits for global expansion. Instead of dismissing such stocks as expensive, investors should use second-order thinking to ask *why* the market is pricing in such high growth.
The primary concern for creators regarding a Netflix-Warner Bros. merger isn't consumer price-gouging (monopoly). It's that Netflix would become the single dominant buyer of content (monopsony), giving it immense leverage to suppress creator pay and control.
The cynical take on the Netflix-WB deal is that Netflix's true goal is to eliminate movie theaters as a competitor for consumer leisure time. By pulling all WB films from theatrical release, it can strengthen its at-home streaming dominance and capture a larger share of audience attention.
While the dot-com bubble chased nascent internet delivery, Netflix's contrarian thesis was that the internet wasn't ready. They used DVDs-by-mail as a transitional distribution network to build a massive customer base and brand, creating a moat while waiting for streaming technology to mature.
Netflix's bid for Warner Bros. may be a brilliant game theory play. Even if the deal is blocked by regulators, it forces its primary rival into a multi-year acquisition limbo. This distraction freezes the competitor's strategy, allowing Netflix to extend its market lead. It's a win-win for Netflix.
Recent streaming price increases, which are vastly outpacing inflation, serve as the primary evidence that the market is already too consolidated. Further mergers would grant companies like Netflix unchecked pricing power, transferring wealth from consumers and labor directly to shareholders in an oligopolistic environment.
Many subscription companies employ a "penetration strategy," pricing below cost to attract a large user base. Once loyalty is established, they leverage their pricing power to increase profits, shifting focus from pure growth to appeasing shareholders who now demand profitability.
For 20 years, Netflix's identity was built on 'no ads, no live sports, and no big acquisitions.' Its recent reversal on all these fronts to maintain market dominance shows that adapting to new realities is more critical for long-term success than rigidly adhering to foundational principles.
Services like HBO Max rely on occasional "FOMO TV" hits (e.g., *White Lotus*), but their weakness is low daily engagement. Netflix's dominance stems from its daily-use nature, which generates vast data to train its powerful content discovery algorithm, creating a moat that competitors struggle to cross.