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  1. TBPN
  2. Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson
Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN · Dec 8, 2025

Media wars explode as Netflix and Paramount vie for WB. Plus, the new space race, the psychology of gambling, and the rise of autonomous AI agents.

Prediction Markets Could Function as Decentralized Gig Economy Platforms

A futurist take suggests prediction markets could replace services like DoorDash. A user would create a market on a desired outcome (e.g., "Will kiwis be delivered?") and fund the "no" side. A gig worker is then incentivized to perform the task and bet "yes" to collect the payout, creating a decentralized fulfillment system.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

The Rise of Gambling Among Youth Stems From Economic Pessimism, Not Moral Decay

The recent surge in activities like sports betting and crypto trading is not a sign of generational degeneracy but a symptom of economic pessimism. When young people feel traditional avenues for building wealth, like homeownership, are blocked, they become more risk-seeking and turn to high-variance alternatives.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Political Backlash to Media Mergers Centers on News Control, Not Entertainment IP

Political resistance to deals like a Paramount-Warner Bros. merger isn't about consolidating entertainment franchises like Batman. The core fear is the potential for one entity to control major news outlets (CNN, CBS), creating a perceived "monopoly on truth" and wielding outsized political influence.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

JetBlue's Business Class Headphone Case Can Be Used to Smuggle Meals to Economy

The podcast hosts discovered a hack to bypass JetBlue's rule against passing food from business class to economy. By concealing meals inside the provided hard-shell headphone case, they successfully transferred food to colleagues in the back, highlighting a creative workaround to a corporate policy.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Media Antitrust Arguments Weaken as YouTube and Social Video Blur Market Definitions

Media M&A, like Netflix acquiring Warner Bros., faces a lower antitrust risk because the definition of the "video market" has expanded to include YouTube and TikTok. This vast competition dilutes the market share of any single legacy entity, making traditional monopoly claims harder to prove in court.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

The Moon's Lack of Atmosphere Makes Electromagnetic Mass Drivers a Viable Space Logistics Hub

Unlike on Earth, where atmospheric drag makes electromagnetic launchers (mass drivers) impractical, the Moon's vacuum environment makes them highly efficient. This technology could turn the Moon into a "train station" for the solar system, launching raw materials and goods to Mars at a fraction of the energy cost.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Non-Fiction's Real Impact Lies in a Few "Banger Lines," Not the Entire Book

Author Morgan Housel observes that even life-changing non-fiction books aren't remembered in their entirety. Their lasting impact comes from two or three memorable sentences or core ideas that the reader internalizes. For authors, this reframes the goal from comprehensive recall to crafting a few powerful, sticky takeaways.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

The Apollo Program Chose Direct Launch Over a More Sustainable In-Space Refueling Model

During the Apollo era, NASA debated two moonshot strategies: a single, massive rocket for a direct launch versus a logistics-focused approach with in-orbit refueling. While direct launch won at the time, today's strategy for Mars has reverted to the refueling concept as the more sustainable and scalable long-term solution.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Author Morgan Housel Avoids Paid Newsletters to Prevent Creative Burnout

Despite the lucrative potential, best-selling author Morgan Housel intentionally avoids a subscription model. He believes the pressure to consistently produce content for paying subscribers ("feed the ducks because they're quacking") creates a dangerous dynamic, forcing creators to publish even when they lack inspiration, which harms the work's quality.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Antithesis Finds "Unknown Unknown" Bugs by Simulating Real-World Chaos, Not Writing Test Cases

Traditional software testing fails because developers can't anticipate every failure mode. Antithesis inverts this by running applications in a deterministic simulation of a hostile real world. By "throwing the kitchen sink" at software—simulating crashes, bad users, and hackers—it empirically discovers rare, critical bugs that manual test cases would miss.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Paramount's $108B Warner Bros. Bid Isn't Directly Comparable to Netflix's Targeted Offer

Paramount's bid is for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery entity, including its cable networks. In contrast, Netflix's offer targets only the studio and HBO assets. This structural difference, along with attached debt and spin-offs, makes a simple price-per-share comparison between the two deals misleading.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago

Daily Engagement, Not Occasional "FOMO TV," Is the Key Moat for Streaming Services like Netflix

Services like HBO Max rely on occasional "FOMO TV" hits (e.g., *White Lotus*), but their weakness is low daily engagement. Netflix's dominance stems from its daily-use nature, which generates vast data to train its powerful content discovery algorithm, creating a moat that competitors struggle to cross.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson thumbnail

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

TBPN·2 months ago