The biggest risk for a late-stage private company is a growth slowdown. This forces a valuation model shift from a high multiple on future growth to a much lower multiple on current cash flow—a painful transition when you can't exit to the public markets.

Howard Marks describes the downside of being a public company as receiving a constant, often arbitrary, 'report card' from the market. Daily stock price movements, driven by people with limited understanding of the company's long-term strategy, create noise and pressure that private companies can avoid.

Private equity and venture capital funds create an illusion of stability by avoiding daily mark-to-market pricing. This "laundering of volatility" is a core reason companies stay private longer. It reveals a key, if artificial, benefit of private markets that new technologies like tokenization could disrupt.

The public markets offer a unique advantage over staying private indefinitely: discipline during transitions. Daily stock prices and investor scrutiny force management to confront hard truths and balance growth, profitability, and innovation. As seen with Netflix's pivot to streaming, this pressure is crucial for realigning employee incentives and making tough capital decisions during strategic shifts.

Dan Sundheim argues successful private companies should avoid going public. Public market volatility means stock prices, and thus employee compensation, are driven by sentiment, not fundamental value creation. Being dramatically overvalued can be as harmful as being undervalued, as it misaligns incentives for future hires.

Public market investors systematically underestimate sustained high growth (e.g., 60%+), defaulting to models that assume rapid deceleration. This creates an opportunity for private investors with longer time horizons to more accurately value these companies.

While media often highlights the costs of being public, the valuation multiple is an overlooked benefit. A consistently growing small business can command a 20x P/E ratio, far exceeding the typical 3x cash flow multiple offered in a private equity buyout.

Operating a public company isn't just a change in funding; it's like running two entities. One is the operational business, and the other is a public-facing organization requiring constant management of institutional investors, which significantly distracts from core business goals.

Despite private capital availability, the scrutiny of being a public company imposes healthy discipline. It forces better prioritization and maturity, which is ultimately beneficial for long-term growth and provides access to the world's deepest capital pools.