European military officials are secretly developing contingency plans for a US-less NATO but are deliberately quashing public discussion. They fear that any open talk of European self-reliance would provide political justification for a US president to accelerate a withdrawal from the alliance.

The American security umbrella has created a dependency culture that has stunted Europe's ability to think and act for itself on defense. This dynamic is a two-way street, with US policymakers also holding simplistic, condescending views of their European allies, perpetuating the cycle of strategic immaturity.

Unlike Europeans who have NATO and native nuclear powers as a potential fallback, major Asian allies like Japan and South Korea feel they have no viable alternative to the U.S. security guarantee. This perceived lack of options forces them into a strategy of accommodation and appeasement toward a transactional Trump administration, hoping to simply endure the term.

America's unpredictable, "law of the jungle" approach doesn't embolden adversaries like Russia or China, who already operate this way. Instead, it forces traditional allies (Canada, Europe, Japan) to hedge their bets, decouple their interests, and reduce reliance on an unreliable United States for upholding international law.

In response to America's predatory and unpredictable policies, allies are not just complaining; they are actively diversifying their economic relationships to reduce their vulnerability. This is seen in new trade deals like EU-Mercosur and Canada-Indonesia, which consciously bypass the US to build resilience.

Due to perceived US instability, traditional allies in Europe and Canada are proactively diversifying their partnerships. They are creating alternative trade and security networks (e.g., EU-India, Canada-EU) to reduce their dependence on the United States.

The true 'mega risk' is not a single policy but a fundamental shift in the US global role. The post-1945 global economic system, including free trade and dollar dominance, has been built on a foundation of US security and leadership. If that leadership is withdrawn, the entire international order could change fundamentally.

Trump's confrontational stance with allies isn't just chaos; it's a calculated strategy based on the reality that they have nowhere else to go. The U.S. can troll and pressure nations like Canada and European countries, knowing they won't realistically align with China, ultimately forcing them to increase their own defense commitments.

European rhetoric about 'strategic autonomy' is ultimately hollow. For decades, Europe's security has been guaranteed by the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a public good it cannot afford or politically agree to replicate. This fundamental dependency ensures Europe cannot truly break from U.S. foreign policy, regardless of leadership style.