To avoid making emotionally-driven changes after a losing streak—which Cliff Asness calls his "only negative five sharp ratio strategy"—AQR delays implementing major model adjustments for six months. This forced cooling-off period ensures decisions are based on rigorous research, not recent performance.
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AQR's public communication and conviction intensify during downturns caused by market mania, like valuation spreads blowing out. However, if losses stem from a factor model failing, the response is to re-evaluate, not double down. The 'why' behind the loss dictates the strategy.
At IVP, even when a partner is passionate about a deal, the firm encourages them to 'sleep on it' after a debate. This deliberate pause allows the partner to process the team's feedback without pressure, often leading to a more rational assessment of their own conviction and preventing investments driven by emotion rather than collective wisdom.
Post-mortems of bad investments reveal the cause is never a calculation error but always a psychological bias or emotional trap. Sequoia catalogs ~40 of these, including failing to separate the emotional 'thrill of the chase' from the clinical, objective assessment required for sound decision-making.
To avoid emotional, performance-chasing mistakes, write down your selling criteria in advance and intentionally exclude recent performance from the list. This forces a focus on more rational reasons, such as a broken investment thesis, manager changes, excessive fees, or shifting personal goals, thereby preventing reactionary decisions based on market noise.
AQR's Cliff Asnes highlights that a prolonged period of underperformance is psychologically and professionally more damaging than a sharper, shorter drop. Enduring a multi-year drawdown erodes client confidence and forces painful business decisions, even if the manager's conviction in their strategy remains high.
To avoid emotional decision-making, especially with losing positions, write down the specific criteria for any investment. Then, backtest those rules against historical data. This replaces emotional struggle with a systematic, data-driven process.
Historical analysis of investors like Ben Graham and Charlie Munger reveals a consistent pattern: significant, multi-year periods of lagging the market are not an anomaly but a necessary part of a successful long-term strategy. This reality demands structuring your firm and mindset for inevitable pain.
To combat the urge for constant activity, which often harms returns, investor Stig Brodersen intentionally reviews his portfolio's performance only once a year. This forces a long-term perspective and prevents emotional, short-sighted trading based on market fluctuations.
Despite rational strategies, top quant Cliff Asness confesses to feeling the emotional sting of losses far more intensely than the pleasure of gains, a classic example of prospect theory in action. This human element persists even at the highest levels of quantitative finance.
To combat emotional decision-making, Eddie Elfenbein’s strategy mandates replacing exactly five of 25 stocks each year. This rigid structure forces patience and prevents impulsive trades, even when he feels tempted to sell a poorly performing stock. This system prioritizes long-term strategy over short-term reactions.
