While the US focuses on quarterly returns, China has spent decades investing in and controlling the supply chain for critical minerals essential for technology and defense, securing long-term leverage.

For 30 years, China identified rare earths as a strategic industry. By massively subsidizing its own companies and dumping product to crash prices, it methodically drove US and global competitors out of business, successfully creating a coercive dependency for the rest of the world.

While important for EVs, lithium is "overrated" as a strategic priority because its enormous market size naturally absorbs a disproportionate share of broad-based government subsidies. This diverts limited capital away from smaller, more severe chokepoints in minerals like heavy rare earths, where China holds near-total control.

China's export ban on rare earth metals, critical for everything from iPhones to fighter jets, exposes a major US vulnerability. The solution is to treat domestic mining like vaccine development—a national security priority that requires fast-tracking the typical 30-year regulatory process for opening new mines.

China is leveraging its 90% control over rare earth processing not just against the US, but globally. By requiring licenses from any company worldwide, it creates a chokehold on high-tech manufacturing and establishes a new template for economic coercion.

China demonstrated its significant leverage over the U.S. by quickly pressuring the Trump administration through a partial embargo on rare earth metals. This showcased a powerful non-tariff weapon rooted in its control of critical mineral supply chains, which are also vital for defense applications.

Following US policy moves, China is likely to expand its use of export controls on critical materials. Silver, essential for EVs, solar panels, and AI data centers, has been added to its list, signaling a willingness to leverage its supply chain dominance as a geopolitical tool against rivals.

While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.

The urgent need to replenish munitions for Ukraine and prepare for a Taiwan contingency is directly undermined by dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chinese export control laws can automatically deny sales to defense users, creating an acute short-term vulnerability for a Western defense industrial base holding limited stockpiles.