Paradoxically, tariffs intended to punish China could result in it facing lower duty rates than US allies like Japan or South Korea. This is because China possesses unique retaliatory leverage (e.g., rare earths) to force targeted tariff reductions from the U.S., an option unavailable to other nations.

China's renewed commitment to the previously stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is a direct geopolitical response to the U.S. using trade and energy as weapons. This move signals a strategic pivot to reduce its energy dependency on the Western Hemisphere amid escalating trade tensions.

The concept of 'weaponized interdependence,' highlighted by China's use of export controls, is driving Asian nations like Japan, India, and South Korea to implement economic security acts. This shifts investment toward domestic supply chains in critical minerals, semiconductors, and defense, creating state-backed opportunities.

The tariff war was not primarily about revenue but a strategic move to create an "artificial negotiating point." By imposing tariffs, the U.S. could then offer reductions in exchange for European countries committing to American technology and supply chains over China's growing, low-cost alternatives.

While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.

China is restricting exports of essential rare earth minerals and EV battery manufacturing equipment. This is a strategic move to protect its global dominance in these critical industries, leveraging the fact that other countries have outsourced environmentally harmful mining to them for decades.

Direct investment in rare earth commodities is impractical for Western investors as they trade on Chinese exchanges. The primary way to gain exposure is through the equities of Western mining and refining companies, which are highly volatile and sensitive to US-China geopolitical headlines rather than underlying commodity prices.

Despite significant US tariffs hitting labor-intensive goods, China's overall export volume remains strong. This resilience stems from a structural shift towards high-tech sectors like semiconductors and autos, combined with strategically rerouting trade through intermediary ASEAN countries to circumvent direct tariffs.

While the U.S. oscillates between trade policies with each new administration, China executes consistent long-term plans, like shifting to high-quality exports. This decisiveness has enabled China to find new global markets and achieve a record trade surplus, effectively outmaneuvering U.S. tactics.