Unlike previous administrations that used trade policy for domestic economic goals, Trump's approach is distinguished by his willingness to wield tariffs as a broad geopolitical weapon against allies and adversaries alike, from Canada to India.
The US dollar's dominance is less about its role in oil transactions (petrodollar) and more about its deep integration into global banking and financial plumbing via the Eurodollar system. This structural entrenchment makes it incredibly difficult to displace.
The staggering rise of U.S. shale production disrupted the global oil market, fundamentally altering its power structure. This disruption directly pushed rivals Russia and Saudi Arabia to form the OPEC+ alliance in 2016 to collectively manage supply and counter American influence.
China has undergone a radical transformation, from being opened by British coal-fired warships in the 19th century to now being a nation whose immense fossil fuel demand and green energy manufacturing dominance fundamentally reshapes the entire global geopolitical landscape.
Driven by U.S. shale, Brazilian and Guyanese oil, and Canadian pipelines, the Western Hemisphere's importance in global fossil fuel production has surged to levels not seen in nearly a century. This geographic shift fundamentally alters global energy dependencies and geopolitical focus.
China's renewed commitment to the previously stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is a direct geopolitical response to the U.S. using trade and energy as weapons. This move signals a strategic pivot to reduce its energy dependency on the Western Hemisphere amid escalating trade tensions.
Major European allies like the UK and France face a "lethal problem" where raising defense spending to meet US-led targets could trigger a bond market revolt. This fiscal constraint, coupled with voter opposition to tax hikes, makes meeting these commitments politically and economically untenable.
China demonstrated its significant leverage over the U.S. by quickly pressuring the Trump administration through a partial embargo on rare earth metals. This showcased a powerful non-tariff weapon rooted in its control of critical mineral supply chains, which are also vital for defense applications.